The Bears have a much more difficult schedule than a year ago when they won 13 games but the NFC North is so weak that it will be difficult for Chicago not to win 10 or 11 games and capture a third straight division title. (2006 regular season records in parentheses):
CHICAGO BEARS (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): It was a memorable off-season for the Bears who dispatched team offensive MVP Thomas Jones, took a hard line with disgruntled LB Lance Briggs, and parted ways with troubled DT Tank Johnson. Chicago was second in the NFL in points scored last year, although leading the league in points off turnovers was the main reason for that success. Cedric Benson takes over at RB for Jones with much maligned Rex Grossman still behind center. The Bears will win with their solid defense but the specter of just one Super Bowl loser even making the post-season in the past six years, looms over their heads.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 68-76
ATS: 73-64-7
HF: 19-18-1
HD: 21-13
AF: 4-4-2
AD: 28-29-4
Sportsbook Buster: The Bears are a combined 17-2-1 ATS versus AFC West teams (San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland), all of whom they play this year.
NFL Betting Angle: Chicago is just 1-6 as a favorite after a bye week. This year, the Bears are at Oakland (Nov. 11) after a week off.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS): First year Head Coach Mike McCarthy's West Style offense helped the Packers win twice as many games as the previous season but continued improvement could be difficult to attain this year. QB Brett Favre is still the mainstay of an offense that will miss RB Ahman Green and doesn't have a stud at wide receiver. The line is a work in progress. On defense, the Packers improved dramatically once DT Cullen Jenkins moved outside, finishing in the middle of the pack (so to speak), statistically. This is not a very good team but this is not a tough division, either.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 84-60
ATS: 68-72-4
HF: 29-3-1-1
HD: 4-6-1
AF: 14-17-2
AD: 21-18
Sportsbook Buster: The Packers are 6-0 ATS versus the Redskins, who they play Oct. 14.
NFL Betting Angle: Green Bay has failed to cover seven straight games as a home underdog.
DETROIT LIONS (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS): Offensive coordinator Mike Martz' system did not work well in Detroit where a weak offensive line was responsible for the Lions finishing dead last in the league in rushing. Head Coach Rod Marinelli was equally disappointed by his freshly installed defensive scheme which finished 30th in the NFL in points allowed. Detroit fans are hoping that a full year under the new systems will yield better results this season and they may be right.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 46-98
ATS: 68-73-3
HF: 11-17-1
HD: 26-16-1
AF: 0-6
AD: 31-34-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Lions have covered five straight games against the Buccaneers, who they play at home, Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle: Detroit has proven to be a solid home underdog and terrible home favorite over the last nine years.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS): Second year Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress, the offensive architect in Philadelphia, hopes that the addition of draft choices RB Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) and WR Sidney Rice (South Carolina) will improve an attack that ranked just 26th in scoring last season. Having Tarvaris Jackson as your starting QB could be a problem, though. The defense lead the NFL against the run but was last against the pass last season. A better pass rush is needed if Minnesota is to stay ahead of Detroit in the fight to avoid the NFC North basement.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)
SU: 79-65
ATS: 67-74-3
HF: 30-28-1
HD: 8-5
AF: 12-19-2
AD: 17-22-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS versus the Cowboys, who they play in Dallas, Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle: Minnesota is a bad road team ATS, especially as an away favorite.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
Sixth of an eight-part NFL betting preview series.
Next: Analyzing the NFC South.
This article was written by Luken Karel for
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