New England's dream season ended in a nightmare in the Super Bowl but it's difficult to see how the Patriots won't dominate this division again, certainly straight up and probably against the spread, as well. (2007 regular season records in parentheses):
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (16-0 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U): There are few holes on offense where Coach Bill Belichick can turn things over to QB Tom Brady and an experienced supporting cast of all pros but the defense lost an outstanding CB in Asante Samuel. The linebacking corps got some much needed youth in top draft pick Jerod Mayo. Bets and Pieces: Future book bettors beware; since 2000, only one team that lost the Super Bowl the previous season, returned to the playoffs the next year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 108-52
ATS: 89-64-7
HF: 33-29-4
HD: 10-3-1
AF: 23-17
AD: 24-14-2
Sportsbook Buster: The visitor in the Patriots-Jets series is 15-3 ATS, the last 18 meetings between these two clubs.
Sports Betting Angle: New England has covered 10 straight games against teams from the NFC West.
BUFFALO BILLS (7-9 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U): The Bills were decimated by injuries last year but could surprise, especially if several newcomers, including top draft choice CB Leodis McKelvin, helps patch up a porous pass defense and 6-6 rookie WR James Hardy becomes a legitimate red zone target for evolving QB talent Trent Edwards. Bets and Pieces: In his career as an NFL head coach, Bills mentor Dick Jauron is 14-3 ATS as a non-division home underdog.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 74-86
ATS: 81-73-6
HF: 26-21-1
HD: 16-15-1
AF: 8-7-2
AD: 31-30-2
Sportsbook Buster: The Bills are an impressive 14-2 ATS the week after playing the Patriots.
Sports Betting Angle: Buffalo has covered its last eight meetings with Miami.
NEW YORK JETS (4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U):
The quarterback position, once a liability that threatened to keep the Jets from serious playoff contention, now is an asset with the dramatic acquisition of Brett Favre. New York also helped itself on defense with the additions of DT Kris Jenkins and LB Calvin Pace, as well as the drafting of pass rusher Vernon Gholston. Bets and Pieces: During Head Coach Eric Mangini's two-year reign, the Jets are 8-0-1 ATS when the over/under total is less than 37 points.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 82-78
ATS: 81-70-9
HF: 25-22-3
HD: 14-15-1
AF: 9-13-1
AD: 33-20-4
Sportsbook Buster: The Jets are 12-2 ATS on Monday Night (at San Diego, Sept. 22)
Sports Betting Angle: New York is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games against division rival Miami.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-15 SU, 5-8-3 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Bill Parcells is calling the shots upstairs and Tony Sparano is the new head coach on the field but the Dolphins have several unanswered questions, including whether Josh McCown, John Beck or rookie Chad Henne will be the quarterback and how the defense will perform now that sack specialist Jason Taylor has danced off to Washington. Bets and Pieces: The Dolphins are a dismal 3-12-3 ATS in division play the last three seasons.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 80-80
ATS: 77-77-6
HF: 28-31-1
HD: 9-10-1
AF: 13-10
AD: 27-26-4
Sportsbook Buster: The Dolphins have covered 10 of their last 11 games as a non-division underdog of six or more points.
Sports Betting Angle: Over the last 20 games, Miami is 17-3 ATS versus AFC West foes Denver (5-0), San Diego (6-1) and Oakland (6-2).
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
O/U = Over/Under
This is the first of an eight-part NFL preview series.
Next: Analyzing the AFC North
