Minnesota and Green Bay were a combined 13-5-2 ATS outside the division last year, a trend which could continue this season for those two NFC North contenders. (2007 regular season records in parentheses):
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (8-8 SU, 7-7-2 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U): The Vikings helped their porous pass defense with the addition of NFL sack leader Jared Allen and have a superior running game led by Adrian Peterson. No. 1 in both rushing and rushing defense last year, Minnesota needs improvement from QB Tarvaris Jackson to become a true Super Bowl threat. Bets and Pieces: Minnesota is 7-16-2 as an underdog of a field goal or less the past 10 seasons.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 87-73
ATS: 74-81-5
HF: 33-30-1
HD: 9-7
AF: 13-20-2
AD: 19-24-2
Sportsbook Buster: The Vikings have been a risky wager on the road, especially as an away favorite.
Sports Betting Angle: Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS its last six games against Detroit, including 3-0 at home.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS, 11-4-1 O/U): The post-Brett Favre era begins in Green Bay with the Packers looking to former first round pick Aaron Rodgers to fill the enormous void at quarterback. No one expects Rodgers to be Favre but if he’s serviceable the team’s defense could carry it to the post-season. Bets and Pieces: Since 1998, Green Bay is a highly profitable 11-5 as a division road underdog.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 97-63
ATS: 80-75-5
HF: 33-32-2
HD: 6-6-1
AF: 17-18-2
AD: 24-19
Sportsbook Buster: The Packers are 19-10-3 ATS in their two seasons under Coach Mike McCarthy.
Sports Betting Angle: Green Bay has covered the spread in its last four games against Detroit.
CHICAGO BEARS (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-7 O/U): The Bears have problems on offense, particularly at quarterback where both Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton have struggled. The departure of receivers Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad doesn’t help and there’s uncertainty at running back, too. Bets and Pieces: In a scheduling oddity, Chicago is the only NFL team with three consecutive road games this season. That also happened to Chicago in 2006 when it went 2-0-1 ATS in that span.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 75-85
ATS: 80-73-7
HF: 21-22-1
HD: 22-14
AF: 6-5-2
AD: 31-32-4
Sportsbook Buster: Since 1998, the Bears are a solid 22-14 as a home underdog.
Sports Betting Angle: Chicago is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games against Atlanta, a team the Bears play Oct. 12.
DETROIT LIONS (7-9 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 11-5, O/U): The Lions, who have won exactly one playoff game in the last 50 years, finished ranked last in the NFL in total defense in 2007 while becoming the first team in 15 years to lose four games by 30 or more points. Pass happy Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz was given the boot and Detroit will try to run more under new OC Jim Colletto. Sadly, improvement still could be elusive. Bets and Pieces: Detroit is 3-8-1 ATS within the division in Rod Marinelli’s two-year stint as the Lions head coach.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2007)
SU: 53-107
ATS: 74-82-4
HF: 13-18-2
HD: 28-18-1
AF: 0-6
AD: 33-40-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Lions have proven to be a solid home underdog but haven’t won in the role of a road favorite in more than a decade.
Sports Betting Angle: Detroit has covered six straight games against Tampa Bay, which it plays at home, Nov. 23.
Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog
O/U = Over/Under
This is the sixth of an eight-part NFL preview series.
Next: Analyzing the NFC South
