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College Basketball Betting: Analyzing the SEC

November 3, 2008

There should be a lot of volatility in the SEC, forcing college basketball betting aficionados to stay on their wagering toes this season. Straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2006/07 season are in parentheses:

 

EASTERN DIVISION

TENNESSEE (31-5 SU, 16-15-1 ATS, 13-18-1 O/U): The Volunteers will have a new look but the “Controlled Chaos” defensive pressure still will be intense.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  9-3

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  2-5-1

Away Underdog:  3-0

Neutral site:   2-7

Sportsbook Buster: The Volunteers were 9-3 ATS at home last season.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” was 9-4-1 when Tennessee played in the conference last season.

 

FLORIDA (24-12 SU, 14-12-1 ATS, 13-14 O/U): Versatile Nick Calathes (15.3 PPG, 6.1 APG, 5.2 RPG) leads a resurgent Gator team.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  7-5

Home Underdog:  0-0-1

Away Favorite:  2-0

Away Underdog:  4-4

Neutral Site:   1-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Gators were 7-4 ATS in the game after a pointspread victory.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” was 7-3 when Florida played non-conference teams.

 

KENTUCKY (18-13 SU, 15-13 ATS, 13-15 O/U): The Cats will purr up front but young guards will need to step up for Kentucky to excel.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  8-4

Home Underdog:  1-2

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  5-4

Neutral Site:   0-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Wildcats were 12-5 ATS in SEC play.

Sports Betting Angle: Kentucky was 3-8 ATS versus non-conference opponents.

 

VANDERBILT (26-8 SU, 16-17 ATS, 18-15 O/U): The Commodores have a stud in A.J. Ogilvy (17.0 PPG) but outsider shooters are needed.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  7-10

Home Underdog:  1-0

Away Favorite:  2-0

Away Underdog:  3-5

Neutral Site:   3-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Commodores were 6-11 ATS on three or more days rest.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 16-7 when Vanderbilt was a favorite.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA (14-18 SU, 14-14 ATS, 12-16 O/U): All but one regular returns and now is the time to match potential to performance.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  3-7

Home Underdog:  0-3

Away Favorite:  0-0

Away Underdog:  5-4

Neutral Site:   6-0

Sportsbook Buster: The Gamecocks were 3-10 ATS at home.

Sports Betting Angle: South Carolina was 6-0 ATS on neutral courts.

 

GEORGIA (17-17 SU, 16-14 ATS, 12-18 O/U): The Bulldogs lost their two best players and this is still a football school.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  4-4

Home Underdog:  1-1

Away Favorite:  1-0

Away Underdog:  4-6

Neutral Site:   4-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Bulldogs were 6-3 ATS on two or fewer days rest.

Sports Betting Angle: The “under” was 13-7 in Georgia conference games.

 

WESTERN DIVISION

ALABAMA (17-16 SU, 12-15 ATS, 14-13 O/U): In an evenly matched division, the Tide may have the athleticism to prevail.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  4-6

Home Underdog:  0-3

Away Favorite:  0-1

Away Underdog:  3-5

Neutral Site:   4-0

Sportsbook Buster: The Crimson Tide was 5-9 ATS at home.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 10-3 when Alabama was a favorite.

 

LSU (13-18 SU, 11-15 ATS, 13-13 O/U): Marcus Thornton (19.6 PPG) leads a veteran team that must adapt to a new head coach, Trent Johnson.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  2-4

Home Underdog:  2-2

Away Favorite:  0-3

Away Underdog:  7-3

Neutral Site:   0-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Tigers were 1-8 ATS versus non-conference foes.

Sports Betting Angle: LSU was 2-8 as a favorite.

 

MISSISSIPPI (24-11 SU, 14-16 ATS, 18-12 O/U): The Rebels have quick strike potential in the backcourt but need some beef up front.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  8-7

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  1-2

Away Underdog:  4-3

Neutral Site:   1-4

Sportsbook Buster: The Rebels were 6-11 ATS in SEC play.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 10-5 in Ole Miss home games.

 

AUBURN (14-16 SU, 9-12-1 ATS, 14-8 O/U): Unless the Tigers improve their last place SEC defense, another losing season is in store.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  1-3

Home Underdog:  3-3

Away Favorite:  0-0

Away Underdog:  5-4-1

Neutral Site:   0-2

Sportsbook Buster: The War Eagles were 2-5 ATS after a pointspread win.

Sports Betting Angle: The “over” was 12-6 when Auburn was an underdog.

 

MISSISSIPPI STATE (23-11 SU, 16-15 ATS, 13-16-2 O/U): The Bulldogs lost 45 points in scoring and look to be in for a rebuilding season.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  6-8

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  4-0

Away Underdog:  3-3

Neutral Site:   3-4

Sportsbook Buster: The Bulldogs were 7-3 ATS on the road.

Sports Betting Angle: MSU was 11-7 ATS on three or more days rest.

 

ARKANSAS (23-12 SU, 13-17-1 ATS, 16-15 O/U): With no seniors on the roster, the Razorbacks will suffer a steep decline this season.

By the Numbers (2007/08 Season)

Home Favorite:  6-5-1

Home Underdog:  0-0

Away Favorite:  1-1

Away Underdog:  0-5

Neutral Site:   5-4

Sportsbook Buster: The Razorbacks were 0-5 as away underdogs.

Sports Betting Angle: Arkansas was 3-10 ATS on two or fewer days rest.


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