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April 2008
Don't get too cocky if you did well betting NBA basketball during the regular season because the playoffs, which tip-off at the end of this month, are a whole new ball game for gamblers.
For starters, there's a different (yes, higher) level of intensity during the post-season. So, while every team mailed in a few games (and some, more than a few) during the regular season, don't expect anyone to take off a night during the playoffs. Thus, if you made a few bucks banking on the disinterest factor during the regular season, don't count on that angle holding up during the NBA basketball playoffs.
The intensity of the playoffs will manifest itself in another important way; better defense. For NBA basketball betting fans, that usually means fewer uncontested baskets and lower scores. Of course, oddsmakers know this too so it's not unusual to see playoff totals six or seven points lower than you'd see during the regular season.
The playoffs also differ from the regular season in that travel, which can be tiring and debilitating and rob a team of energy, no longer is a significant factor. After the first game of a playoff series, when the visiting team travels to the home team's city, the teams have the same travel schedule. So road trips, where one team may plays three games in four nights or four games in six nights and is forced to travel across several time zones, are non-existent. The irony of this is that while teams play an entire 82-game season to gain the home court advantage, that advantage is greatly mitigated in the playoffs.
Importantly for bettors, the absence of travel not only lessens the impact of the home court but affects the pointspread, as well. So, expect to see much tighter lines during the past-season than in the regular season.
In addition to individual game pointspreads and totals, once the playoff match-ups are determined, bookmakers will begin accepting bets on which teams will win each individual series. Many wagering outlets also will offer props on the post-season, including which team will win each series in exactly how many games.
Until the then, basketball betting devotees can fill the void with futures, a wager admittedly loaded with vigorish but one, if utilized properly, which can provide valuable options, including betting one team on the money line while holding a future book ducat on the other.
In terms of NBA basketball futures, in recent years it was easy to eliminate teams from the Eastern Conference and concentrate on teams from the far more powerful Western Conference to win the league championship. But while the premier teams still have Western zip codes, it's Eastern Conference Boston, at least in terms of won/lost record, which is the best team in the league.
To that end, the Celtics were lightly more than a 2/1 consensus favorite to win the NBA Championship at the dozen or some betting venues surveyed. On April 5, the Celtics set a record for a turnaround when they moved to 61-15, 37 more wins than last season's atrocious 24-58 mark.
At 7/2, defending champion San Antonio is the second choice in futures, ahead of the 4/1 LA Lakers. Detroit is rated a 6/1 chance of going all the way while Phoenix is held at 8/1 and surprising New Orleans is offered at odds of 10/1. Utah, 13/1; Houston, 20/1; Cleveland, 20/1; Dallas, 22/1; and Orlando, 25/1, also are in the hunt.
Most books also have odds to win each conference. The Celtics are tops in the Eastern Conference at 7/4 with the Pistons second at 7/2 and the Cavaliers (9/1) and Hornets (10/1) next in line.
The race is far more contentious in the Western Conference where the Spurs (3/1), Lakers (7/2), Suns (5/1) and Hornets (6/1) are in a tight struggle.
Interestingly, while Boston is the overall favorite to win the 2007/08 NBA championship, in a generic matchup of conferences, the overall strength of the Western Conference makes that group of teams a -150 favorite (bet $150 to win $100) over the Eastern Conference, the +110 underdog, (bet $100 to win $110).
Clearly, while there are still many odds and prices to come, those interested in NBA basketball playoffs betting, can get started now.
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