The first thing you should know about Preakness Stakes betting is that it’s even farther removed from the Kentucky Derby, the opening leg of thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, than the 494 miles that separate Louisville from Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, the site of the triad’s middle jewel, May 17.
Err, make that 493.9375 miles since, at a mile and three-sixteenths, the Preakness is a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby, just one of the many differences that make the race such a stern and unforgiving test for both handicappers and horse betting enthusiasts.
But if the results of the May 3 Kentucky Derby are to believed-—and we have no reason to think otherwise—-this May’s sprint for the black-eyed Susans may be more of a coronation than a horse race.
Indeed, other than an extremely short price, horse race bettors could have difficulty coming up with valid excuses as to why they shouldn’t have their money on Big Brown, the impressive 4 3/4-length winner of the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown, who some feared was insufficiently experienced to win the bulky Run for the Roses and would have a difficulty overcoming the outside post position, made liars of his critics. Overcoming the No. 20 spot in the starting gate (something that hadn’t been accomplished since 1929) while racing four wide into the first turn before mounting a three-wide move around the final turn, Big Brown won with effort to spare. In fact, the undefeated (four-for-four) colt still was fresh enough to buck off jockey Kent Desormeaux during his walk back to the winner’s circle.
Even the move from Churchill Downs to Pimlico would appear to enhance Big Brown’s chances of capturing the sport’s second jewel of the Triple Crown. For starters, Pimlico is friendly to speed, a commodity that Big Brown does not lack. Nimble, quick afoot, and working against a field that may have just half as many runners as competed in the Derby, Big Brown should have little difficulty establishing position from which to launch a finishing burst that has humbled all his opponents, thus far.
Big Brown also is on firm historical footing in the Preakness with 68 favorites having hit the finish line first in 132 runnings of the race, a success rate of better than 50 percent. Curlin upset Kentucky Derby winner and 6/5 favorite Street Sense in last year’s Preakness but Derby winning favorites such as War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all notched back-to-back-to-back Preakness victories as recently as 2002-2004. In fact, the winner of the Kentucky Derby has won the Preakness in six of the last 11 years.
Big Brown’s obvious advantages aside, bettors who can’t stand 2/5 will be looking elsewhere. That list of longshots could include as many as eight horses who did not compete in the Kentucky Derby. Among them are Lexington Stakes winner Behhindatthebar; San Rafael hero El Gato Malo; Count Fleet winner Giant Moon; Harlem Rocker, who captured the Withers; Yankee Bravo, who won the California Derby; Tres Borrachos, who came in third in the Arkansas Derby; and the respective third and fourth place finishers in the Blue Grass Stakes, Kentucky Bear and Stevil.
The hope is that a newcomer will be fresher than those horses who ran at Churchill Downs but over the last 25 years only Deputed Testamony (1983), Red Bullet (2000), and Bernardini (2006) have won the Preakness without first contesting the Kentucky Derby.
Of those who unsuccessfully chased Big Brown in Kentucky, only the connections of fifth place finisher Recapturetheglory, who had trouble in the paddock in Louisville, seemed eager for a rematch. Of course, the promise of a shorter than usual Preakness field may convince the owners of other Derby also-rans to reconsider.
Those looking for a chink in Big Brown’s armor may find solace in the words of the colt’s trainer, Dick Dutrow, who, surprisingly, sounded a bit less confident after the Derby than he did before it.
“I liked him in this race (the Derby) because everything was perfect for him,” explained Dutrow to the assembled press on the day after the Derby. “Now things change. Maybe there’s a hot-shot speed horse, maybe it will rain. I know it looks like he’s the best horse but Pimlico is a different track.”
It’s just that small measure of doubt that makes Preakness Stakes betting the handicapping and wagering challenge that it is.
