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Betting the Central Division

September 30, 2009

The Cavaliers were wagering bullies but three other teams within the division also had winning pointspread records last year, a trend NBA betting aficionados will be tracking this season. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with straight up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) records for the 2008/09 season in parentheses:

 

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (76-20 SU, 57-38-1 ATS, 44-52 O/U): The Cavaliers may have added the final piece to the title puzzle when they acquired Shaquille O’Neal during the off-season. With league MVP LeBron James (28.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.2 APG) and Mo Williams (17.8 PPG, .436 from 3-point range) back, and with O’Neal adding some muscle in the paint, Cleveland could win it all. Future Book Odds Profile: NBA Championship 3/1; Eastern Conference 6/5; Central Division 1/4.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite: 31-16

Home Underdog:  1-0

Away Favorite:  20-14-1

Away Underdog: 5-8

Sportsbook Buster: The Cavaliers were 32-16 ATS at home last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Cleveland was 14-6 ATS within its own division last year.

 

CHICAGO BULLS (44-45 SU, 44-42-3 ATS, 50-38-1 O/U): The Bulls will try to build on last season’s seven-game playoff series loss to the Celtics without Ben Gordon, the team’s leading scorer the past four years. John Salmons (18.3 PPG) was imported from Sacramento to replace Gordon and help promising Derrick Rose, who averaged 16.8 PPG in his rookie year. Luol Deng (14.1 PPG), Brad Miller (11.8 PPG), Tyrus Thomas (10.8 PPG) and Kirk Hinrich (9.9 PPG) give Chicago good depth and another chance at a playoff run. Future Book Odds Profile: NBA Championship 35/1; Eastern Conference 20/1; Central Division 9/1.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite: 14-16-1

Home Underdog:  8-5

Away Favorite:  3-5

Away Underdog: 19-16-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Bulls are 14-27 ATS versus teams from the Atlantic Division the last two seasons.

Sports Betting Angle: Chicago was 19-10 ATS versus the Western Conference last year.

 

DETROIT PISTONS (39-47 SU, 34-52 ATS, 41-44-2 O/U): The Pistons have retuned their engine but whether the new additions can operate on all cylinders remains to be seen. Fresh faces Ben Gordon (20.7 PPG), Charlie Villanueva (16.2 PPG) and Chris Wilcox will join veterans Richard Hamilton (18.3 PPG) and Tayshaun Prince (14.2 PPG) in a new lineup that will be younger and, perhaps, better. Future Book Odds Profile: NBA Championship 40/1; Eastern Conference 16/1; Central Division 9/2.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite: 11-24

Home Underdog:  2-6

Away Favorite: 8-7

Away Underdog: 12-15

Sportsbook Buster: The Pistons were 13-30 ATS in home games last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Detroit was 5-15 ATS when playing teams within it own division last year.

 

INDIANA PACERS (36-46 SU, 42-38-2 ATS, 45-34-3 O/U): The Pacers need to improve their defense, which ranked 26th in the NBA last year to move up the ladder in the physical Eastern Conference. Offensively, Danny Granger (25.8 PPG) became an all-star while Mike Dunleavy (15.1 PPG), T.J. Ford (14.9 PPG) and Troy Murphy (14.3 PPG) also contribute. Indiana could finish anywhere from second to fourth in the division. Future Book Odds Profile: NBA Championship 40/1; Eastern Conference 30/1; Atlantic Division 20/1.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite: 10-12-1

Home Underdog:  8-7

Away Favorite:  2-3

Away Underdog: 20-15-1

Sportsbook Buster: The “over” was 24-16-1 in Pacers home games last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Indiana was 11-6-1 ATS versus teams from the Atlantic Division last year.

 

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (34-48 SU, 41-39-2 ATS, 44-37-1 O/U): Michael Redd (21.2 PPG) missed 49 games and Andrew Bogut (11.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG) missed 46 so the Bucks could be a lot better if those two key players return to previous form this season. That said, Milwaukee will miss Charlie Villanueva, Richard Jefferson and Ramon Sessions, who combined for 48.2 PPG last year but have left the area code. It could be difficult for Milwaukee to avoid the Central Division basement. Future Book Odds Profile: NBA Championship 150/1; Eastern Conference 100/1; Central Division 50/1.

By the Numbers (2008/09 Season)

Home Favorite:  14-11

Home Underdog: 7-9

Away Favorite:  1-1

Away Underdog: 18-18-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Bucks were just 6-10 ATS within the division last season.

Sports Betting Angle: Milwaukee was 24-14 ATS when getting a day’s rest between games last year.

 

This is the second of six NBA previews.

Next: The Eastern Conference’s Southeast Division.

 

 

 


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