Every team in the NFC South held its own against the spread, especially in non-division play where the four teams were a combined 24-14-2 ATS last season, a statistic that NFL betting enthusiasts surely will be monitoring this year. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with 2008 regular season records and pointspread results in parentheses:
ATLANTA FALCONS (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): The Falcons began the post-Michael Vick era with new head coach in Mike Smith, rookie QB Matt Ryan and imported RB Michael Turner making it to the playoffs. Now add TE Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs and a defense that should bee bolstered by seven new players and Atlanta is right there again in the highly competitive NFC South. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 18/1; NFC Championship 8/1; NFC South 2/1; Over/Under regular season wins 9.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2008)
SU:85-90-1
ATS: 85-85-6
HF:27-24-2
HD:13-22
AF:10-6-1
AD:35-33-3
Sportsbook Buster: Since the start of the 1998 season, the Falcons are just 13-22 as home underdogs.
Sports Betting Angle: Atlanta has covered six consecutive games against Miami, the season opener this year on Sept. 13.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-8 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): The Saints offense, led by QB Drew Brees, RBs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, and WR Marques Colston was the NFL’s best last season but a defense ranked 23rd held them to 8-8. The defense still is a problem so if New Orleans makes it back to the playoffs, it probably will be because the offense overcame those deficiencies. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 20/1; NFC Championship 10/1; NFC South 9/4; Over/Under regular season wins 8 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2008)
SU:79-97
ATS: 86-86-4
HF:23-31-1
HD:13-17-2
AF:14-8
AD:35-30-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Saints are 20-11-1 as an “over” bet the last two seasons.
Sports Betting Angle: New Orleans has covered six straight games versus Dallas, which it plays at home, Dec. 19.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 8-7-1 O/U): The Panthers return the key elements from last season’s division championship but the schedule, with only one team that had a losing record last year, is extremely difficult. As in New Orleans, The Carolina offense, led by QB Jake Delhomme, will have to overcome a questionable defense for the Panthers to notch their first back-to-back winning seasons in seven years under Head Coach John Fox. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 16/1; NFC Championship 8/1; NFC South 9/5; Over/Under regular season wins 9.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2008)
SU:83-93
ATS: 87-81-8
HF:25-33-2
HD:15-11-2
AF:12-13-1
AD:34-25-3
Sportsbook Buster: The Panthers have covered seven of their last nine road openers.
Sports Betting Angle: Carolina has covered seven of its last eight visits to New Orleans.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U): The Buccaneers will be rebuilding under new GM Mark Dominik, 37, and new Head Coach Raheem Morris, 32, placing the team’s future in the hands of rookie QB Josh Freeman, though probably not on opening day. The defense also needs revamping and the schedule is anything but accommodating which could lead to a last place finish in the rugged NFC South. Future Book Odds Profile: Super Bowl 40/1; NFC Championship 20/1; NFC South 5/1; Over/Under regular season wins 6 1/2.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2008)
SU:95-81
ATS: 85-84-7
HF:39-31-1
HD:11-4-2
AF:16-21-1
AD:19-28-3
Sportsbook Buster: The Buccaneers are 11-4-1 ATS the last 10 seasons in the role of a home underdog.
Sports Betting Angle: TampaBay has covered seven of its last nine visits to Atlanta.
Legend:
SU= Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF= Home Favorite
HD= Home Underdog
AF= Away Favorite
AD= Away Underdog
O/U = Over/Under
This is the seventh of an eight-part NFL preview series.
