Boxing betting enthusiasts understand that fighting styles, motivation and conditioning can be almost as important in determining the outcome of a fight--and a wager--as talent. But this time gamblers also will have to ponder whether injury will be a factor when Chad Dawson (27-0, 17 KOs) defends his IBF lightweight championship in a rematch against Antonio Tarver (27-5, 19 KOs) in Las Vegas, May 9.
The 12-round rematch, which originally was scheduled for Mar. 14 but moved back eight weeks after Dawson suffered ligament damage to his right hand during training, has affected the bout's price, though not dramatically. Dawson, who opened as a -700 favorite, has slipped a bit to -650 (bet $650 to win $100). Meanwhile, Tarver, who lost a unanimous 12-round decision to Dawson in October, has improved to a +450 underdog (bet $100 to win $450) after opening at +500. It's not a big move but it may reflect some concern about the durability of Dawson's injured hand.
The total on the fight, which will be broadcast by HBO from The Joint at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, is 9 1/2 rounds. Bettors who prefer the "over" will have to lay -400. But gamblers who opt for the "under" take back +300 that the fight lasts to at least the halfway point of the 10th round.
Boxing betting fans also can wager that Dawson again wins by decision (-350) or that this time it's Tarver who convinces the judges (+800). There also are prices on a knockout for each fighter in each individual round, ranging anywhere from 33/1 to 60/1 for Dawson and 40/1 to 50/1 for Tarver.
Dawson captured his first world title in February of 2007 when he dethroned previously unbeaten WBC light heavyweight champion Tomasz Adamek. Dawson defended that title three times before vacating it to challenge Tarver, last October.
Tarver is the only boxer to pin two losses on Roy Jones, Jr., and the first ever to knock him out. Tarver also holds victories over former world champions Glen Johnson, Montell Griffin and Reggie Johnson but probably is best known for starring opposite Sylvester Stallone in the 2006 motion picture, "Rocky Balboa."
Although the underdog, Tarver likes his chances: "Dawson's a young lion and he had a high work rate during our first fight but I always learn from my losses and, as Roy Jones, Glen Johnson and Eric Harding will tell you, I never lose twice to the same man," said Tarver. "Dawson will learn that lesson too on May 9."
A week after Dawson and Tarver settle matters on HBO, Andre Ward and Edison Miranda will hook up in a scheduled 12-round super middleweight bout before Showtime cameras in Oakland, California. Oddsmakers believe this will be a more competitive fight than Dawson-Tarver, opening the undefeated Ward (18-0, 12 KOs) as a tepid -250 favorite. With abundant knockout power, Miranda (32-3, 28 KOs) is quoted as a lively +210 underdog.
The total on the fight is 9 1/2 rounds with bettors asked to lay -120 on either the "over" or the "under."
Ward, who won the Gold Medal at the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, will be fighting in his home town for the first time, a prospect that can't help but improve his chances for success if the bout goes the distance. In his previous fight, in February, Ward easily beat Henry Buchanan. His outing before that was a third round knockout of Esteban Camou.
Miranda, whose three defeats are to world champions Arthur Abraham (twice) and Kelly Pavlik, has been idle since knocking out Joey Vargas in London in March of 2008.
Like the Dawson-Tarver fight where boxing betting fans will have to process Dawson's injured hand into the wagering equation, gamblers also will have to weight how Ward's relative inexperience and Miranda's recent inactivity will influence their betting decision.
