We're about a third of the way through the regular season, a time when many Major League Baseball betting fans assess their future book wagers and look to improve their position. It turns out that MLB futures also reveal quite a bit about day-to-day baseball betting, as well.
Of course, not every betting position needs improvement. For example, if you took the Yankees at their opening odds of 9/1 to win the World Series, you've got to feel pretty good about that wager. About 50 games into the season, New York has advanced from the early fifth choice in the betting to a 4/1 favorite. The Pinstripers also have improved their odds of winning the American League pennant from an opening 9/2 that once trailed the Red Sox and Angels, to a current 2/1 that makes them the team to beat.
The Dodgers are another team that should have their future book backers smiling. After opening the season at odds of 8/1, Los Angeles now is 9/2 to capture the October Classic. With the best record in baseball, the Dodgers also have moved from a 4/1 second choice to a 9/4 favorite to capture the National League flag.
Not surprisingly, both the Yankees and Dodgers—-the latter more than the former—-have been solid day-to-day bets, as well. New York, which got off to a bit of an ominous start by losing its first five games against AL East rival Boston, had a positive return on investment (ROI) of +1.8 percent, though not good enough to beat the vigorish. But, as savvy gamblers have no doubt noticed, the Bronx Bombers have excelled in certain situations, especially against left-handed starting pitching (+17.8 percent ROI) and in the role of a favorite (+7.2 percent ROI).
With an ROI of 23.2 percent overall that includes an ROI of 32.5 percent against teams from the NL West and an ROI of 49.7 percent as an underdog, the Dodgers have been a fabulous bet in almost every category so far this season.
The Cardinals, Tigers, Braves and Reds also have performed better than expected.
St. Louis, which began the year at 18/1 to win the World Series, now is 11/1 while Detroit, which has bounced back from a dismal 2008 campaign to lead the AL Central, has improved from 30/1 to 18/1. Atlanta, which still was chasing Philadelphia and New York in the highly competitive NL East, had shown enough for bookmakers to lower the Braves from 60/1 to 25/1. In contention with Milwaukee and St. Louis in the NL Central, Cincinnati's World Series chances have improved from 80/1 to 35/1.
Meanwhile, a Dirty Dozen of teams such as the Rays, Phillies, Twins, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Indians, White Sox, Athletics, Padres, Orioles, Rockies and Astros have disappointed oddsmakers.
Arizona's decline, from 12/1 to 55/1, is the most precipitous but Colorado, which has dropped from 35/1 to 200/1, is another NL West team whose hopes have not lived up to expectations in a division dominated by LA.
Not surprisingly, both the Diamondbacks and Rockies have been betting flops in straight up play as well as futures. Arizona has an ROI of -13.6 percent over the season, including an ROI of -28.3 percent at home. The Diamondbacks have an ROI of -26.5 percent as a favorite and an ROI of -25.8 percent versus teams within their division.
Colorado is even worse with corresponding numbers of -20.4 percent overall, -29.5 percent at home, -31.8 percent as a favorite and -24.7 percent against teams from the NL West.
Of the other 10 teams on our list of the League's most disappointing, only Philadelphia has a positive ROI for all its games. A consistent wager on the other nine has been a losing proposition.
Clearly, the link between rising and falling future book prices not only reflects a team's performance on the field but how it impacts baseball betting fans as well.
In short, teams that have played well and improved their future book standing also have proven profitable for baseball betting enthusiasts. Teams that have stumbled in futures and played poorly have been poison for gamblers.
