NBA betting enthusiasts who wagered on games during the regular season will need to address a whole new set of challenges when the playoffs tip off in mid April.
Intensity: There's no doubt that over the course of an 82-game regular season that not every team tries as hard as it can every game. There's just no way for a team to maintain that type of intensity and focus throughout the entire season. But don't expect anyone to take off a game during the NBA Playoffs. So, if you were successful padding your bankroll during the regular season by counting on the disinterest factor, wagering on "sandwich games" where a top team loses focus against a weaker team after and before facing a tough rival, that opportunity won't exist in the playoffs.
The intensity of the playoffs will be demonstrated in another important way; teams play much better defense and use more of the shot clock. For NBA betting followers, that usually means fewer uncontested baskets and much lower scores. Oddsmakers know this too so it's not unusual to see playoff totals dramatically lower than you'd expect to see during the regular season. For example, when the Celtics and Cavaliers met during the regular season, the totals for their four games were 190, 184 1/2, 186 1/2, and 191 1/2. That's an over/under average of more than 188 points.
Then Boston and Cleveland hooked up in the playoffs for what turned out to be a seven-game series. The totals for the games were 181, 177 1/2, 179 1/2, 181, 176 1/2, 178 1/2, and 173 1/2. The average total for these seven games is 178 points, a full 10 points less per game than when these same teams met during the regular season.
Pointspreads: You can't have teams playing more intense, lower scoring, defensive-minded games without those factors affecting the pointspread. Clearly, if fewer points are expected then the spread has to be smaller too. Again, look at the Celtics and Cavaliers from just a year ago. The Celtics were a 10-point favorite in Boston when the over/under was 191 1/2 for a Feb. 27, 2008 game but two months later were only an 8-point favorite when the total for the game was 173 1/2. Everything is tighter in the playoffs.
Travel: Long road trips, sometimes including three games in four nights or four games in five or six nights, can be tiring and debilitating and rob a team of energy during the regular season. But travel no longer is a significant factor in the NBA Playoffs. In fact, after the first game of a playoff series, when the visiting team journeys to the home team's city, the teams have the same travel schedule. Of course, the irony of this is that while teams play an entire 82-game season to gain the home court advantage, that advantage is greatly mitigated in the playoffs.
Trends: The fourth and final factor also is the most difficult to predict. Bettors will have decide for themselves if trends developed over an 82-game season are likely to remain in force during the NBA Playoffs or be swept aside by the previously discussed trio of elements that are unique to the post-season.
To that end, will the Cavaliers, who a couple of weeks before the end of the regular season had a great against the spread (ATS) record overall, were especially potent in Cleveland, and were superb in the role of a favorite, likely to carry their pointspread prowess into the playoffs?
Will the Magic, with the best ATS mark in the NBA, including 12-2 as an underdog, continue to be a bettor's best friend?
Will the Hawks, who were 5-0 as home underdogs, continue to surprise bet takers?
Will top teams such as the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Rockets and Hornets continue to be liabilities against the pointspread in the playoffs?
Those questions, and so many more, are part of what makes NBA Playoffs betting the challenging and unique task that it is.
