The NFL Draft had its impact on NFL betting as 13 off the league's 32 teams had their Super Bowl future book odds adjusted at the conclusion of the personnel lottery in New York City, April 25-26.
Interestingly, all 13 teams had their odds lowered by bookmakers, a disturbing development that not only is contrary to long-established oddsmaking principles but also unfair to gamblers. Since it's unlikely these odds were altered by action, the moves were made "on air," that is, based on opinion, not wagering activity.
Let's see if we can't figure out a rationale for the 13 teams that had their odds changed:
New England: Already the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV at odds of 6/1, the Patriots were lowered to 5/1 after a series of moves landed them six of the first 97 players chosen. But there aren't a lot of big names among the six-pack and the movement may be more a reflection of the news that quarterback Tom Brady is progressing well following knee surgery than the influx of new talent.
San Diego: The Chargers were dropped from 14/1 to 12/1, another curious adjustment in that most experts did not consider San Diego's draft as particularly stellar. No. 1 pick Larry English is expected to pressure the quarterback and subsequent choices were made to address needs along the offensive and defensive lines.
Green Bay: The Packers, who will switch to the 3-4 defense this season, were lowered from 20/1 to 18/1 after acquiring nose tackle B.J. Raji and OLB Clay Matthews with their first two selections. That makes sense.
Minnesota: The Pack wasn't the only NFC North team to help itself as the Vikings improved from 22/1 to 18/1 in Super Bowl futures after adding playmaker Percy Harvin, a touchdown machine from National Champion Florida.
Washington: The Redskins dropped from 25/1 to 18/1, largely on the assumption that DE Brian Orakpo will make a big difference in the nation's capital. We'll see.
TampaBay: The Buccaneers surprised most observers by trading up to take talented but unpolished QB Josh Freeman. Then oddsmakers surprised us by lowering TampaBay from 35/1 to 30/1 in futures.
Houston: The Texans upgraded their defense with acquisitions such as LB Brian Cushing and DE Connor Barwin, moves that were rewarded when oddsmakers reduced Houston from 40/1 to 30/1 in the Super Bowl future book.
Buffalo: Oddsmakers moved the Bills down from 50/1 to 30/1 after the team secured a premier pass rusher in DE Aaron Maybin and a tough and nasty center in Eric Wood with their two first-round selections.
Cleveland: The Browns traded down three times but still came away with center Alex Mack and receivers Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi with their first three picks, selections that lowered the team's future book odds from 60/1 to 50/1.
Seattle: Tumbling from 60/1 to 30/1, the Seahawks made the biggest future book move of all, mostly because they got a "can't-miss" LB in Aaron Curry.
Cincinnati: Offensive tackle Andre Smith and ferocious linebacker Rey Maualaga were impressive enough selections to lower the Bengals from 75/1 to 60/1 in Super Bowl futures.
Kansas City: Oddsmakers cut the Chiefs' future book price in half, from 100/1 to 50/1, so they must think that first round pick Tyson Jackson, a defensive end selected with the third choice overall, will make a big difference. But KC also traded away TE Tony Gonzalez, making the large odds drop questionable.
Oakland: The Raiders dropped from 100/1 to 75/1 after grabbing Maryland wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the fastest player in the draft, with the seventh choice, overall. Then they took Michael Mitchell, a player not on most teams' top 100 list, with their second selection. Hmm.
Interestingly, neither the Lions nor the Jets, both of which drafted respective franchise quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, the Jaguars, which got a pair of bookend offensive tackles in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, or the Eagles, which bolstered their attack by trading for offensive tackle Jason Peters and adding WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy through the draft, impressed the future book oddsmakers.
Those moves, if they come, will have to be made by NFL betting fans.
