For a great many NFL betting enthusiasts, their initial wager of the 2009 season won't be on the first game of the upcoming campaign but on the last. Future book betting on the 2010 Super Bowl, where prices are far more generous than the usual 10/11 odds gamblers readily accept on individual games, is a nice way to start the gridiron betting season.
In fact, while a Super Bowl future book bet can stand on its own as a valid wager, savvy bettors also use it as a way to hedge later in the season. For example, suppose you make a future book bet on the Steelers to repeat as Super Bowl champions. If Pittsburgh merely makes it as far as the AFC Championship game you can hedge by betting on the Steelers' opponent, often on the money line. If Pittsburgh wins and advances to the NFL title game and the Steelers are favored, you can bet on their opponent, plus the points, and, if Pittsburgh wins but doesn't cover, collect on both your future and side wager.
In what may be a surprise to unsophisticated bettors, the Patriots, not the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, opened as the favorites to capture Super Bowl XLIV, in Miami, Feb. 7, 2010. Price makers opened New England as a 6/1 favorite with Pittsburgh the second choice at 7/1.
Coming off a 50-touchdown season in 2007, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was injured in the first game of 2008 and missed the rest of the season. New England still finished 11-5 but failed to qualify for the playoffs. Now, with a healthy Brady back behind center, the Patriots clearly are the team to beat again, recently having been dropped to 4/1 by oddsmakers.
The Steelers, who trounced the Patriots, 33-10, in New England last November, do it with a defense that ranked No. 1 overall, No. 1 against the pass, and No. 2 against the run.
The Giants and Colts both opened at odds of 8/1 to win the Super Bowl although each team has slipped a bit. New York, which cut ties with WR Plaxico Burress after his gun incident, now is 9/1 while Indianapolis, eased to 11/1 when Tony Dungy decided not to return to the sidelines.
The Cowboys opened at 9/1 but like the Colts have been pushed back to 11/1. It remains to be seen if Dallas, which shed itself of Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones and Tank Johnson, has gained by subtraction.
The Ravens, Panthers and Titans are three more teams that have slipped in the estimation of oddsmakers. Baltimore, which opened at 11/1, now is 15/1 while both Carolina and Tennessee, which started out at 12/1, now are 16/1.
The Eagles and Chargers are two teams moving in the opposite direction. Philadelphia opened at 12/1 in futures but was adjusted to 11/1 after a solid draft and some solid off-season acquisitions. San Diego improved from 14/1 to 12/1 in futures, perhaps because price makers feel the team's defense will be better now that pass-rushing OLB Shawne Merriman is regained his health.
Longshot players have only one triple-digit team this season, the Lions, who are offered at odds of 100/1 to win Super Bowl XLIV after going winless the previous gridiron campaign.
Most books also have future books on each conference and all eight NFL divisions. In general, odds of winning the AFC or NFC are about half what they are of a team winning the Super Bowl. Thus, New England, which currently is 4/1 to win the Super Bowl, is 2/1 to be crowned AFC champion.
When it comes to division odds, all four AFC divisions have an odds-on favorite. New England is 1/7 to win the AFC East title; Pittsburgh is 5/7 to prevail in the AFC North; Indianapolis is 10/11 to wear the AFC South crown; and San Diego is 1/5 to emerge as best in the AFC West.
The NFC is more contentious with New York a slender 9/5 favorite over Philadelphia (2/1) and Dallas (2/1) in the NFC East; Minnesota (3/2) slightly ahead of Chicago (8/5) and Green Bay (2/1) in the NFC North; Carolina (9/5) with a miniscule edge over Atlanta (2/1) and New Orleans (9/4) in the NFC South; and Arizona (even) the choice to turn back San Francisco (5/2) and Seattle (5/2) in the AFC West.
The season won't kick off until September but NFL betting fans can place their future book wagers now.
