If winning the Triple Crown, a task that's been accomplished just 11 times in 133 years, is the ultimate achievement for any thoroughbred, then having a winning wager on each of the three races is a primary goal for any horse racing betting enthusiast.
With the 2009 Kentucky Derby behind us and the sport's middle jewel, the Preakness Stakes, up next, let's look at a number of the key handicapping factors that could influence the outcome of the classic at Pimlico Racecourse, in Baltimore, May 16:
The Triple Crown's middle leg cuts back to a less exhausting mile and three-sixteenths, or one-sixteenth of amile (about 110 yards) shorter than the distance of the Kentucky Derby. This, along with several other factors, creates a whole new dynamic for the earnest race handicapper.
For one, if Churchill Downs proved difficult for speed horses, Pimlico always has been hospitable to horses that attend the pace. That's not to say that horses can't win the Preakness from off the pace but the Pimlico stretch is so short (1,152 feet) that winning moves often are made on or before the final turn, not deep in the lane. That places a premium on nimble, quick horses that can alter gears and readily adapt to changing circumstances. On the other hoof, large, powerful horses often can be compromised by Pimlico's tight turns.
Additionally, the run to the first turn is a quick one, again aiding those animals who either are favorably placedor have the requisite early speed to gain a positional advantage. However, the size of the Preakness field typically is in the 10-14-horse range, lessening the traffic problems inherit in the more fully stocked Kentucky Derby. In fact, while the Derby allows 20 runners, the maximum Preakness field is 14.
Most of the time, the winner of the Kentucky Derby also is a solid bet to win the Preakness, something that's happened 32 times, including 2002-2004 with War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones, and again last year with Big Brown. Unlike the Kentucky Derby however, which endured 21 years without a winning favorite (from Spectacular Bid in 1979 to Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000), 69 favorites have won the Preakness in the race's 133-year history.
Gamblers who search for a Preakness winner from the list of horses that did not compete in the Kentucky Derby on the theory that the newcomer will be faster and fresher than those that battled at Churchill Downs, do so at their own peril. Since Deputed Testamony turned the trick in 1983, only Red Bullet, in 2000, and Bernardini, who won in 2006 at the expense of the ill-fated Barbaro, have claimed the Preakness without first contesting the Kentucky Derby.
Tellingly, many of the handicapping factors that were deemed essential prior to the running of the Kentucky Derby, including fitness, stamina, experience, race schedule and a fondness for Churchill's track surface, should be virtual non factors in the Preakness.
Heading into the Kentucky Derby, many questioned whether horses who raced over synthetic surfaces could adapt to the dirt at Churchill Downs. They finished first (Mine That Bird), second Pioneerof The Mile), fourth (Papa Clem) and fifth (Chocolate Candy). End of argument.
There also were questions about whether eventual Derby winner Mine That Bird could be a factor coming off just two lackluster prep races at SunlandPark. The gelding mocked that concern. So preparedness should not be a factor for any of the Preakness starters.
Churchill's dirt surface, loved by some horses and hated by others, has been replaced by the largely indifferent dirt surface at Pimlico, a track that most horses negotiate without apprehension or discomfort. There are dozens of ways to lose the Preakness but riders rarely blame the racetrack for a horse's poor performance.
So, while the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes may share baubles in thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown, horse racing betting fans should understand that wagering on the Preakness requires a whole new set of handicapping skills.
