Horse racing betting fans, eager to forge ahead to the second jewel in the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, May 16, might aid their handicapping cause by first looking back at the results of the May 2 Kentucky Derby.
For starters, gamblers will have to decide if Derby winner Mine That Bird, a spectacular upset winner at odds of 50/1 at Churchill Downs, is worth a wager in Baltimore. The gelding, who earned his lofty Kentucky Derby odds with a last place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and second and fourth place finishes in a pair of ungraded stakes races at Sunland Park in New Mexico this year, will be a much smaller price in the Preakness, a race that, at a mile and three-sixteenths, is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby.
In addition to a more respectable but less attractive price, horse racing betting enthusiasts also will have to assess how much Mine That Bird's ground-saving, rail skimming trip on a muddy track he clearly adored added to his 6 3/4-length winning margin. The gelding, who cost a mere $9,500 as a yearling and arrived at Louisville only after a 21-hour van ride (not exactly first-class travel) remains a puzzlement to students of past performances. His Derby success aside, on paper, Mine That Bird just doesn't look that good.
While Mine That Bird is expected to contest the Preakness, a race won 69 out of 133 times by the favorite, his competition remains unclear. Pioneerof the Nile, who prevailed in a photo over Musket Man and Papa Clem to earn second money, only is a possibility for the Preakness, according to his trainer Bob Baffert. The same is true for Musket Man, who was beaten a nose for the runner-up spot, and Papa Clem, who was another head back in fourth. Papa Clem is trained by Gary Stute, whose father Mel won the 1986 Preakness with Snow Chief after finishing a disappointing 11th in the Derby.
The lure of the Triple Crown being what it is, with good health, we're likely to see that trio take another shot at Mine That Bird.
But that won't be the case for Derby favorite Friesan Fire or second choice Dunkirk. Friesan Fire suffered a gash on back of his left front hoof, which is called “grabbing a quarter,” and finished 18th. Dunkirk, a $3.7 million purchase, injured his left hind hoof and is out of the Preakness, as well.
The WinStar Farm Derby threesome of Hold Me Back (12th), Advice (13th), and Mr. Hot Stuff (15th) won't be headed to Baltimore and neither will Summer Bird (6th) who will be pointed for the Belmont Stakes, instead. And you can scratch West Side Bernie (ninth) and Atomic Rain (16th) from Preakness consideration, as well.
Take the Points, Big Drama and Mr. Fantasy are three who passed the Derby but could have an impact in the Preakness. Take the Points was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby but trainer Todd Pletcher believes, with the added rest, he'll be more imposing in the Preakness.
Big Drama came back off a layoff to finish first (later disqualified to second) in the Swale Stakes at GulfstreamPark, Mar. 28, notching the fast time of 1:20.88 for seven furlongs. Obviously, he's quick and a pace threat.
Mr. Fantasy won the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, Apr. 25, posting a strong time of 1:34.91 for the mile. He's a bit temperamental but he has talent.
The hope for these horses is that they'll be fresher than those who ran two weeks earlier, though over the past quarter century, only Deputed Testamony (1983) Red Bullet (2000) and Bernardini (2006) have won the Preakness without racing in the Kentucky Derby.
The winner of the Kentucky Derby has won the Preakness in seven of the last 12 years but capturing the middle jewel in thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown will be a severe test for both Mine That Bird and horse racing betting fans.
