"There are three kinds of lies," wrote Benjamin Disraeli, "lies, damned lies and statistics." Devotees of the oft-quoted British Prime Minister (1874-1880) will have to forgive baseball betting fans if they differ with him on the value of statistics.
About a third of the way through the 2009 Major League Baseball season, statistics not only are helping to detail a number of emerging wagering trends but also to expose some the long-held misconceptions associated with baseball betting.
Start with the over/under line where bookmakers ask bettors to wager on whether the total number of runs scored by both teams in a baseball game will be over or under a specific amount, usually around nine runs, depending on which teams and which pitchers are competing. Do generally high-scoring teams go over the total more often than teams that score fewer runs or are oddsmakers on top of their game, accurately adjusting for these circumstances?
Frustratingly for bettors, the answer "lies" somewhere in between those two extremes. In fact, of the 17 teams that were averaging more than 4 1/2 runs per game through June 4, 11 of them had gone over the total in more games than not, four of them had gone under the total more than they’d gone over it and two were dead even. But the combined "over" for these 17 teams was 448-425-44, a success rate of 51.3 percent, not good enough to beat the vigorish.
The news is only somewhat more promising when one examines the 13 teams that are averaging 4 1/2 or fewer runs per game. While not one of these teams has gone over the total more than it has gone under it, the combined over/under record of these 13 teams is 308-355-23, an "under" rate of 53.5 percent. Again, it’s tough to make a living hanging around the vig percentage.
A far more statistically reliable way for baseball betting fans to earn a few bucks would be to concentrate on big favorites and big underdogs. If we define a "big favorite" as one of -200 (bet $200 to win $100) or more and a "big underdog" as one of +200 (bet $100 to win $200) or more, then the numbers are quite revealing.
Although most long-held conventional wisdom has cautioned about the dangers of laying a big price in a baseball game, big favorites are 26-11 straight up (SU) for a return on investment of 5.7 percent, enough for a modest profit against baseball’s traditionally generous betting line.
The numbers are even starker on the other side of the ledger where underdogs of +200 or more, through June 4, had won just once in 13 games.
So stay away from underdogs, right? Not so fast. A handful of teams actually have winning outright records as underdogs so, when you add in the line, which usually is "plus" and no worse than even, you wind up with sizeable profits on these select teams.
With a 10-5 outright record and a return on investment (ROI) of +51 percent, through June 5, the Phillies have been the best underdog bet in baseball. The Dodgers, which were 12-7 SU as underdogs and had an ROI of +41.8 percent in those 19 games, were next best.
The Rangers, Braves and Angels also have been good to gamblers in underdog situations. Texas is 18-13 SU and has an ROI of +29.2 percent; Atlanta is 9-7 SU and has an ROI of +27.8 percent; and Los Angeles is 13-12 SU with an ROI of +22.6 percent.
Less impressive but still profitable are the Cardinals and Reds. St. Louis is 8-6 SU as an underdog and has an ROI of +19.6 percent in that situation while Cincinnati is 18-17 SU in the underdog role with an ROI of +14.1 percent.
"Figures lie and liars figure," goes another old saying but for baseball betting fans, there often is wagering truth in those numbers.
