Since the introduction of the 17-week schedule to the NFL in 1990, every team has enjoyed a week off during the regular season, a scheduling phenomenon that has created yet another wagering variable for NFL betting fans to consider. Savvy gamblers will tell you this is a good development; that the more complex the betting equation, the better the opportunity to find advantages where the less focused, less disciplined and less determined bettor fears to tread.
You would think it would be obvious that teams would benefit from a week’s rest, getting an extra seven days to heal and recuperate from the rigors of weekly NFL play. In addition, provided the next opponent wasn’t also coming off a week’s rest, the idle team’s coaching staff would have an extra seven days to analyze film and prepare a game plan. Certainly, we’ve seen the benefit of a week off in the NFL Playoffs where the survivor of the Wild Card game has faired poorly against the well-rested division winner it must face the following week.
But the obvious isn’t always obviously true, especially when oddsmakers get to influence the outcome of a set of statistics. OK, so let’s eliminate the price makers for a while. Since 1990, teams coming off the bye week are 336-298-1 straight up (SU). That’s positive territory (52.9%) but hardly overwhelming.
Far more telling is that when the pointspread is factored into the equation—and that’s what really matters to NFL betting devotees--teams with a week of rest are just 323-326-9 against the spread (ATS), a success rate of only 49.7%. So, contrary to conventional wisdom, betting on the team coming off a bye has been a losing proposition.
Clearly, oddsmakers have done a fantastic job, accurately reflecting the week-off advantage in the pointspread so well that neither side has a wagering advantage.
But that’s the big picture. Let’s see if the numbers stand up to closer scrutiny:
Home favorites are 108-112-3 while home underdogs are 59-53-1, making home teams 167-165-4 ATS overall, confirming that there’s no wagering advantage for bettors there.
Road underdogs with rest are 89-93-5 ATS since 1990 so there’s no real pattern there, either.
In fact, the only sub-division where a rested team has shown an advantage is as a road favorite. In that spot, the visiting chalk is 67-45, for a 59.8% winning percentage against the line. That does surpass the 4.55 percent vigorish that gamblers pay but yields a profit margin of about five percent, not too bad if you’re operating with a huge bankroll but insignificant for most gamblers of lesser means.
A better way to tackle the rest factor would be to analyze each individual NFL team to see if their past results offer any clues to this season’s schedule. By the way, the earliest a team has off is during Week 4; the latest, during Week 10:
Arizona: The Cardinals are 8-5 ATS as home, where they’ll be versus Houston, Oct. 11.
Atlanta: The Falcons are 5-3-1 ATS on the road, where they will be at San Francisco, Oct. 11.
Buffalo: The Bills, who play at Tennessee, Nov. 15, are 3-1-1 as road underdogs with rest.
Chicago: The Bears are 5-1 as road underdogs, a position they’ll occupy at Atlanta, Oct. 18.
Houston: The Texans, who host Tennessee, Nov, 23, are a perfect 3-0 ATS at home after a week’s rest.
Indianapolis: The Colts, who play at St. Louis, Oct. 25, are 3-1 as road favorites.
Kansas City: The Chiefs are 1-3 as road underdogs, where they’ll be when they meet the Jaguars in Jacksonville, Nov. 11.
New England: The Patriots are 1-5 as home favorites, which they’ll surely be when Miami visits, Nov. 8.
New Orleans: The Saints are 0-5 as home favorites but 2-0 as home dogs when they play the Giants in the Superdome, Oct. 18, so check the line for this game.
Philadelphia: The Eagles are 7-2 as home favorites with rest, where they’ll be when they welcome TampaBay to Philadelphia, Oct. 11.
Pittsburgh: The Steelers are just 3-6 as road favorites, a spot they’ll be in when they visit Denver, Nov. 9.
San Francisco: The Niners, a dismal 1-6 as a road underdog after rest, will be in that position when they visit Houston, Oct. 25.
Seattle: The Seahawks are 0-6 as road underdogs after a week’s rest, a position in which they’ll find themselves at Dallas, Nov. 1.
Obviously, the impact of rest does not have the same application for all teams but remains an individual factor that has to be assessed in any NFL betting analysis.
