When it comes to the majority of professional sports, the sportsbooks tend to do an excellent job balancing the action on both sides of the line. However, if there is one sport where the sportsbooks tend to struggle at times it is baseball. A big part of the problem is the fact that MLB underdogs win so many games on an annual basis. Baseball’s best team usually wins around 100 games while the worst club usually posts around 60 wins. Based on the schedule size and the disparity between the best and worst teams, those numbers make it difficult for the sportsbooks to balance out the wagers on both sides. Here is a look at four key tips for finding profitable MLB underdogs.
Understand The Opportunity
The Minnesota Twins were the worst team in baseball last season. They posted 59 wins. With 59 wins in 162 games, they won 36.4% of their total games. That means there had to be a number of games when it might actually have made sense to bet on the Twins to win. The fact that even the worst teams in baseball still win a decent percentage of their games supports the fact that there is some serious money to be made betting on underdogs. Consider that over the last seven years, MLB underdogs have posted a record of 6,917-9,644 for a total of -153 betting units. Over the same span, MLB favorites are 9,619-6,891 for a total of -641 betting units. The underdog totals are actually more favorable. By understanding the opportunity and picking your spots you can really capitalize by betting on MLB underdogs.
Find Quality Starting Pitching
One of the biggest factors that could shift the outcome of a game in favor of an underdog is starting pitching. The sportsbooks factor in pitching but they still weigh their lines heavily based on offensive production. If you can find a favorable pitching matchup then you could gain a significant edge in terms of picking underdogs.
Focus On Division Games
If you are going to bet on underdogs then it makes sense to focus on division games. Over the last seven years, underdogs in division games posted a record of 3,414-4,513 for a total profit of 191 units. There is definitely an opportunity betting on divisional underdogs so make sure you consider those lines.
Underdogs Coming Off Shutout Losses
Another idea to consider is watching for underdogs that are coming off shutout losses. The reasoning for this is simple since the oddsmakers are more likely to give favorites a little more backing when they are facing a struggling team. By finding underdogs that are coming off a shutout loss, you could have an opportunity to get more value than you probably should be getting. The best baseball handicappers in the world understand the importance of doing their due diligence. By betting on underdogs coming off shutout losses, you could gain a significant edge in terms of value betting.