Baseball Playoff Series Betting Strategy



Instead of three- or four-game regular season series, the MLB postseason will be either a best three-of-five or four-of-seven format. As a result, these formats could make for potentially very interesting and profitable betting strategies, if done correctly. In the MLB postseason, truly anything can happen, even when a team is down three games to none in a best four-of-seven series. Here are some general betting strategies for the MLB postseason, specific to series betting.

How To Handicap

Similar to betting on an individual game, it is important to handicap the series. If the series is a best three-of-five format, will the team that you want to bet on win 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2? If the series if a best four-of-seven format, will the team that you want to bet on win 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, or 4-3? By trying to gauge these possibilities, you’ll be able to potentially bet on your selected team to win a series in a specific number of games (e.g. Cubs in five games) or the maximum number of games that your selected team will take to win a series (e.g. Cubs in six games in a best four-of-seven series). By being more specific, you’ll also be able to derive much higher potential payouts if you’re right. If this isn’t your cup of tea, there’s always the moneyline option. If you believe that your selected team has a better than 50% chance of winning the series but are priced as underdogs, there’s definitely value in this bet.

Betting Mid-Series

This strategy could potentially yield very lucrative payouts if you are right in your conviction. One way that this strategy could be applied is to favorites. If you believe that a team will win the series but are heavy favorites to win the series, you could utilize a wait-and-see approach. If this team suddenly find themselves down 1-0 or 2-1 in the series, the payout for them to win the series will likely be even or closer to even, in which case there may be value in this bet. This strategy was demonstrated during the last World Series, when the Chicago Cubs opened as heavy favorites to begin the World Series but suddenly found themselves in a 3-1 hole in the series before coming back to win it all. Had you placed a bet when they were down 3-1 in the series, the payout would have been quite high compared to the initial line before the World Series started. On the other hand, if you’re not so sure as to whether an underdog may win the series, you could also utilize a wait-and-see approach. If this team is up 1-0 or 2-1 in the series, you could place a bet on them to win the series at a reasonable price since the payout will have dropped from the opening line. By employing a wait-and-see approach you’ll be able to see how the first game or first few games of the series unfold before making a betting decision.

Hedging Bets

Hedging your bets in the World Series involve taking one side of the bet before the start of the World Series and subsequently taking the other side of the bet over the course of the World Series games. Hedging your bets in the World Series can be best illustrated with an example – let’s use last year’s matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians as an example. Suppose you thought the Cubs’ curse would continue last year as well and placed a $100 bet on the Indians to win the series at +280. However, when the Indians were up 3-1 in the series, you suddenly had a gut feeling that the Cubs might come back to win it all. Well now, here’s your chance to hedge your bet. With the Cubs down 3-1 in the series and at a line of +250, you’ll be able to play around with the amount of your bet so that whichever team ends up winning the World Series, you’ll be guaranteed a profit regardless, and a sizeable one too in terms of return on investment.