Key Over-Under Numbers In MLB Betting



Aside from moneyline bets when it comes to the MLB, over/under game total bets are extremely popular as well. Bettors have the option of betting on the over or the under for the total number of runs scored in each game. While this sound easy, it’s definitely not. Oddsmakers are very adept at adjusting the game totals for each game, to reflect the actual number of runs that they think will be scored in the game. However, some game total numbers tend to appear more often than others. In this article, we’ll take a look at the key over/under numbers when it comes to MLB betting.

Even Or Odd?

Intuitively, you’d expect that odd numbered game totals tend to appear more often than even numbered game totals. This is due to the fact that a game cannot end in a tie and as a result, makes it more likely that the game total will be an odd number as opposed to an even number. Still can’t see it? A game can never end in a 3-3 or 4-4 draw (game totals would be six and eight respectively. On the other hand, close games such as 3-2 or 4-3, both have odd numbered game totals.

Three Most Popular Numbers

The three most popular game total numbers in the MLB are 7, 9, and 5, in order of popularity. We concluded on these three numbers from analyzing over 32,000 historical games – that’s quite a bit! For game totals resulting in seven runs, this occurred 3,561 times, which represented 11.15% of the total games analyzed. For game totals resulting in nine runs, this occurred 3,301 times, which represented 10.33% of the total games analyzed. For game totals resulting in five runs, this occurred 3,052 times, which represented 9.55% of the total games analyzed. These three most popular game total numbers are followed by game totals of 8, 11, and 6 – all three game total numbers represented 7.80%, 7.67%, and 7.15% of the total games analyzed. Of the six most popular game total numbers, only two were even numbers. This is pretty much in line with what we expected – that odd numbers would be more popular than even numbers. Clearly, this is the case, as the three most popular game total numbers were all odd.

Least Popular Numbers

Obviously, you’d expect that as the game total numbers become larger and larger after a certain point, it’ll be pretty much impossible for game totals to finish as one of these numbers. Imagine that number was 100 – obviously it’d be basically impossible to score 100 total runs in just one game. Of thee 32,000-plus games analyzed, the most total runs scored in one game was 36, which only occurred once. As a result, we’ll list out the least popular numbers, which must have occurred at least 5% of the time in comparison to the total number of games analyzed. Of the game total numbers that occurred at least 5% of the time, the least popular was 13, which occurred 1,665 times or 5.21% of the total. The next least popular game total number was 3, which occurred 1,969 times or 6.16% of the total. Finally, we have 10, which occurred 2,113 times or 6.61% of the total. Following these three game total numbers, the next three least popular game total numbers were 6, 11, and 8, which represented 7.15%, 7.67%, and 7.80% of the total games analyzed.