MLB Betting: A Successful Run Line Strategy



When it comes to MLB betting, it could be extremely iffy at times to bet on a team to win on the run line due to the obvious and real possibility that the team could win by only one run, costing you your bet. While the payouts for favorites on the run line is very attractive and tempting, you must be able to curtail your emotions and really dive into your analysis in order to pick smart run line bets. In this article, we’ll take a look at some sound strategies when betting on MLB run lines.

Home Or Away Team

Betting on a team on the run line when the team is playing at home could be a recipe for disaster. This is simply due to the fact that the home team, if leading after the away team bats in the top of the ninth, will no longer have a chance to try and tack on more runs – the game simply ends. This scenario is frightening if the home team is only leading by one run and the away team fails to close the gap in the top of the ninth, resulting in the home team securing a one-run win, but you losing your run line bet. Another scenario may be that the home team is actually up by more than one run but the away team chips at this lead in the top of the ninth, only to have the home team record the third out in the top of the ninth while they are only ahead by one run. Lastly, in the event of extra innings, once the home team scores in extra innings to break a tie or take the lead, the game is over. As a result, you’ll likely be hoping for a 2-run homer or more if your team is to win and cover on the run line should a game go to extra innings and you’ve taken the home team on the run line.

How Likely A Team Is To Win By One Run

During the course of the MLB regular season, you’ll begin to notice a trend that some teams tend to win a lot of one-run games or have games decided by one run whereas other teams, when they beat their opponent, tend to win soundly. It’s important to try and identify both of these types of teams early on in order to stay away from teams that always find themselves in close games and bet on the run line for teams that usually are able to win by more than one run.

Matchup With Two Aces

For matchups with two aces on the mound as the starting pitchers, it’d be wise to stay away from the run line since these types of games are usually low scoring and tend to be decided by one or two runs. Additionally, it’s no guarantee that the team that you’ve picked to win on the run line will even win the game. When you’re betting on a game with two superb starting pitchers, it’ll be a more prudent strategy to stick to the moneyline in order to avoid the agony of losing on the run line by half-a-run.

Ace Starting Pitcher Against Fringe Rotation Starting Pitcher

A good situation to jump on the run line would be when one team has their ace on the mound and the other team has a fringe rotation starting pitcher on the mound. For these types of games, the ace will usually be able to hold the opposing team to just a few runs while the fringe rotation pitcher will have a decently high change of imploding and getting rocked.