MLB Betting: A System For Underdogs



Although the public loves to side with the favorite, more often than not, true value lies with the underdog. This is especially true when it comes to betting on the MLB. The extremely long season and countless days without games off will undoubtedly lead to many winning and losing streaks. In this article, we’ll take a look at four betting strategies for underdogs that have been proven to work surprisingly well.

Profiting While Winning <50% Of Games

One important thing to keep in mind is that if you’re betting on underdogs, chances are you’ll end up with a winning percentage less than .500. However, if you’re betting on underdogs with an average moneyline of +130, you’ll only need to win 44% of your bets to show a profit. This is the beauty of betting on underdogs. For example, someone who’s betting $1,000 on each underdog game and has posted a record of 25-25 with an average payout of +130 will be up $7,500. While this is only a 50-game sample size, the profits will grow over a full season with a proven betting system.

Underdogs Coming Off A Low-Scoring Win

This betting strategy involves underdogs who have just come off a low-scoring win. Underdogs who have just come off a win tend to play with more confidence, with some handicappers only choosing to bet on teams who have won the previous day. The key here is not to blindly pick underdogs who have won their previous games, but to identify those underdogs who have prevailed in their previous game as an underdog by scoring three runs or less in total. Teams who are able to win without scoring many runs show that they don’t need to score a lot of runs to win games. These types of teams normally depend more on defense along with a solid bullpen, which is exactly the makeup of a team that you should be looking for. Since 2004, this betting strategy has yielded a record of 556-667 with an average payout on the underdog of +138.9. While the record doesn’t seem so great, the ROI totalled 7.6%. This means that had you wagered $100 on each game over this time period, you’d have netted a nice profit of $9,258.

Moneyline Betting On Divisional Games

Under this betting strategy, this involves identifying teams who have won their previous game and are facing a team within their division. Since teams play almost half their total regular season games against teams in their division, there’s a much greater chance that the underdog will win some of these games compared to playing teams outside of their division. With this betting strategy, underdogs have posted a record of 2,114-2,635, resulting in a ROI of 3.3%. Due to the sheer amount of opportunities, a bettor who’s been wagering $100 on these types of games at an average payout of +135.4 would have netted a profit of $15,807.

General Rules For Picking Underdogs

Some general rules for picking underdogs to win involve eliminating underdogs priced at +150 or higher, eliminating underdogs who have lost three or more games in a row heading into their next game (or any underdog who is facing a favorite with a winning streak of three games or more), and eliminating underdogs facing one of the top 20 pitchers in the league.