MLB Betting: Betting Well-Rested Favorites Before The All-Star Break



When it comes to betting on baseball any professional handicapper will tell you that it isn’t smart to bet solely on favorites. The reality is that even the best teams in baseball lose a significant number of games so if you are only betting on favorites you are actually more likely to lose money in the long run even if you win a good portion of those wagers. However, there is one interesting strategy that has been discussed in recent years when it comes to picking MLB favorites at the right time of the year. Here is a look at the theory behind betting MLB favorites after the All-Star break.

The Theory

The All-Star break offers players a chance to step back and get some rest and relaxation in as those that compete in the game have some fun while those that don’t get to do whatever they want with their time off. As a result, teams are usually at their best in the first game back from the All-Star break. The numbers show that the favorites tend to hand a significant advantage in these games based on their combination of talent and rest. Since 2005, the favorites have gone 110-55 on the first day back from the MLB All-Star break. Therefore, if you had bet on only favorites on the first day back from the All-Star break then you would have made some significant profits over the years.

The Breakdown

The most likely reason for the favorites performing at a high level is that good teams that rested game more of an advantage than bad teams that rested. Another factor is that a team that is all but out of playoff contention around the All-Star break will likely treat the time off different than a team that is gearing up for a playoff push so the favorite would likely be more focused and bring a greater sense of urgency to the table. The theory isn’t a complex one but the numbers show that this strategy has been very effective over the years. In fact, this strategy has also yielded some similar results when betting on the run line so you don’t need to feel the need to stick solely with the moneyline if you want to venture out and try to raise your potential profits.

Outlook

The extended rest has provided a significant boost to the MLB betting favorites in their first game back from the All-Star break over the years so it’s definitely worth taking this strategy in to consideration and putting it to use. Since 2012, all teams have returned to play on the Friday following the All-Star break so if you keep an eye out and find a handful of favorites that you think will win then don’t be shy to pull the trigger with the knowledge that the numbers indicated you are more likely to win than lose. It’s important to remember that there is no such thing as a guaranteed bet and some of these favorites will still lose but at the end of the day the odds are definitely in you favor more than at any other point in the season.