MLB Betting: Key Numbers In Regards To Totals



It is commonly known that MLB has the most amount of data and information on historical games played. On baseball-reference.com, MLB statistics date all the way back to the late 1800s, providing individuals who love crunching numbers with a wealth of all-encompassing data. Since the league has basically tracked data from games for as long as we can remember, we are able to gleam important insights from this data, for the purposes of sports betting. One aspect relates to MLB game totals. In this article, we’ll take a look at the five game totals that have appeared most commonly for the past 32,000 or so games that have been played.

1. 7 Runs – 11.15%

Out of all 32,000 games, the number of runs scored each game (by both teams) totalled to seven 11.15% of the time. You’d expect this number to be an odd number due to the fact that when a game total is an odd number, there must be an winner. On the other hand, if the game total is an even number, there is the possibility that the game is a tie. Work this out in your head if you don’t believe me. Seven appears to be the magic number since a lot of games tend to end with final scores of 4-3, 5-2, 6-1, and 7-0. Since seven runs are scored in a game almost once every ten games, it is no wonder that over/under game total betting options tend to hover around 6.5 to 7.5 runs.

2. 9 Runs – 10.33%

Once again, as expected, an odd number – nine – is second on this list, appearing 10.33% of the time. When you start noticing the total runs scored in games, these final scores also have a tendency to appear more often than not – 5-4, 6-3, 7-2, and 8-1. The number nine is also one of the favourites for oddsmakers when they are setting the over/under game totals. A lot of times, game totals will hover between 8.5 to 9.5 runs. In order to accurately set a number for MLB game totals, oddsmakers must also spend a lot of time analyzing past historical data in order to determine the number of total runs scored in a game that will be most likely to result.

3. 5 Runs – 9.55%

Again, an odd number makes our list. In games where there is a pitching duel or low-scoring games, the total runs scored will be likely to fall on five. Just think about low-scoring games and their final scores – 3-2, 4-1, and in some cases, 5-0. As you have probably noticed, especially during the playoffs, 3-2 is a very common final score in a lot games due to the fact that only the best starting pitchers will be taking the mound and runs come at a premium in the playoffs due to much more superior pitching compared to the regular season. In a matchup with two aces, the over/under game total may hover around 4.5-5.5 runs.

4. 8 Runs – 7.80%

Finally, an even number. Since eight is between seven and nine, you’d also expect it to be on this list. Many MLB games also tend to finish off with eight total runs scored – 5-3, 6-2, 7-1. However, in this case, 4-4 is not a viable score due to the fact tie games in the MLB cannot happen – the teams will play however many extra innings until the game is finished. Simply because no tied games can happen, game totals ending in even numbers are less common.

5. 11 Runs – 7.67%

Just a shade less likely to happen compared to eight run games, games with a total of 11 runs scored are usually high offensive output games. When two mediocre pitchers are on the mound or when the offenses of one or both teams are locked in, games tend to end 6-5, 7-4, 8-3, or 9-2. These are typically the types of games that fans enjoy watching – enough offense to make the game exciting, but the scores are also close enough for a possible close finish.