MLB Betting: Strategy For Late Season Games At Coors Field



When it comes to sports betting on baseball the fans of the game are always looking for an angle that can help improve their bottom line. One interesting strategy that has become more popular in recent years is finding value at hitter-friendly ballparks such as Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies home venue is recognized around the league as one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in all of baseball and the main reason behind that is that the thin air in Denver supports the number of home run balls that are hit. Here is a look at the MLB betting strategy for late season games at Coors Field.

The Theory

Weather conditions will heavily influence the trajectory of a baseball with air pressure, wind, temperature and humidity all considered significant factors. The numbers show that MLB overs have hit 52.1-percent of the time when the wind is blowing straight out to centerfield since the start of the 2005 season. The high altitude at Coors Field creates a lower air density and due to the reduced drag created by the thin air the ball will travel significantly further at Coors Field than it would at other venues. The numbers indicate that the ball actually travels roughly five-percent farther at Coors Field than it does at ballparks located at sea level. In fact, the air density also hurts the pitchers in terms of their breaking balls since the air creates a higher pressure zone on the top of the ball, which gives it an exaggerated drop in flight. Meanwhile, a fastball travels through the air with backspin and creates a high-pressure zone in the air ahead of and under the baseball. This means that a curveball will break about 20-percent less in Colorado than it normally would while the fastball also becomes easier to hit. This double negative for the pitchers leads to higher run totals at Coors Field.

The Numbers

The numbers illustrate the difference between how the Rockies totals have fared on the road compared to at home. The Under has hit in only 46.4-percent of Colorado’s home games since 2003 while the Over has hit 54.1-percent of the time. This is a significant difference between the two and the only real difference is the venue. The numbers actually climb higher in the later months of the season when the temperatures become higher in July, August and September. Over those three months, the Over has hit in around 55-percent of the games at Coors Field. The warmer weather and the lower air density has led to higher-scoring games and that makes the later months following the All-Star break that much more profitable for bettors that pick the over bets.

Outlook

The bottom line is that there is a major disparity between the totals at Coors Field when compared to other parks. That statement is amplified even more in the later months of the season when the temperatures are higher and more conducive to higher scoring games. The Over is a very profitable bet most of the time when it comes to baseball games at Coors Field but keep in mind that the months of July, August and September are peak season for high scoring games so the opportunity to win big on the overs is even higher later in the season.