MLB Betting: Team Totals Strategy



When it comes to betting on MLB team totals, this type of bet refers to the over/under of the total number of runs for one team as opposed to the game total, which is the total number of runs scored by both teams. Essentially, a team will have 27 outs (more or less) to score as many runs as they can. While this type of bet is similar to betting on over/under game totals, it doesn’t take into account as many factors as game totals. The bettor only cares about the selected team’s potential to score few or lots of runs. In this article, we’ll take a look at some strategies when betting on team totals.

Hot Streaks

When a team is on a hot streak, you can bet that the team will score its fair share of runs. After all, a team must score runs in order to continue its winning streak. Look for teams on hot streaks that have been more dependent on their offense for sustaining their winning streaks as opposed to lockdown pitching. Just because a team has been on a winning streak, doesn’t mean they’ll be scoring a bunch of runs every game. Dive deeper into why they’ve been on a winning streak and ask yourself – is it because they’re simply scoring more runs than their opponents or preventing runs at an elite rate? If the answer is the former, it might be smart to take them on the over when betting on the team total.

Cold Streaks

Conversely, when a team is on a cold streak, the same type of analysis applies. You must be able to figure out why the team is on a cold streak. Is it because the team has been having an extremely difficult time scoring any sort of runs or is it due to the fact that the team’s pitching staff has been giving up runs to the opponents by the handful? If the answer is the former, it’d be a good strategy to take the team on the under when betting on the team total.

Facing A Weak Pitching Staff

When a team is about to face an opposing team with a weak pitching staff, the team’s offense may be in for a field day. Generally, this refers to an opposing team with a fringe rotation starter, whose ERA is in the 4.00s or higher. Even better, since the opposing fringe rotation starter (if all goes well) will likely be chased out of the game early, if the opposing team’s bullpen is especially weak as well, this could be a recipe for the team putting up a large number of runs on the board. In this case, taking the over when betting on the team total would be a good option – you might even find yourself winning the bet before the fifth inning has finished.

Facing A Strong Pitching Staff

On the flipside, when a team is up against an opposing team’s ace, the team may be limited to one or two runs, especially if the opposing team’s bullpen has also been on fire. It’s important to analyze specific batter vs. pitcher matchups in order to get a better feel for this since some pitchers, although aces, may struggle against certain batters – you’d be wise to find out about this before placing a bet. In any case, taking the under for the game total would be a good call in most cases when a team is facing off against an opposing team’s best pitcher, backed up by a solid bullpen.