Basketball has a lot of rules in place to try to maintain a level of parity that makes the NBA one of the most popular sports in the world to bet on. There aren’t a lot of betting systems that work beyond pure, statistical analysis. There are plenty of basketball betting myths out there that simply aren’t true but at the same time there are definitely some that are worth remembering. Here is a look at three NBA betting myths that are actually true.
Betting On Preseason Underdogs Works
Preseason betting is usually more risky than most other leagues because there are so many young players and draft picks that we haven’t seen much out of if anything ahead of time at the professional level. Teams that finish at the bottom of the league get a tremendous advantage when it comes to selecting the top picks and with a strong focus on those players early in the preseason it usually gives them an advantage. Expert handicappers will usually adjust their systems to account for the talent differential in the preseason and by focusing on the underdogs you can probably gain a significant edge on the sportsbooks.
Relative Team Strength Is Key
While you can evaluate teams based on offense and defense in the NFL, NHL and even in the MLB, the best approach in the NBA is measuring relative team strength. Offense and defense don’t matter nearly as much because of relative team strength so you always want to make sure you are basing your evaluations on key players and how teams perform overall. The best defensive team in the NBA could really struggle to slow down a powerhouse offensive team like the Golden State Warriors so you don’t want to be caught betting on the better defense when their statistics should be irrelevant based on relative team strength.
The Lower Ranks Can Be Favored
The statistical analysis on the NBA shows that betting against teams that are lower ranked at the end of the season delivers profitable advantages. It shouldn’t be a surprise that teams at the lower end of the table go all out in the majority of their games but ultimately there will be games where they just don’t have a chance. That doesn’t mean they won’t keep the score closer than expected on occasion and that it why it is worth favoring the lower ranks and keeping a close eye on whether or not a team is likely to produce a strong game or struggle. Teams won’t purposely tank but a lower seed that is matched up with a higher seed in the midst of a long and difficult road trip could really be outmatched and end up being blown out. It makes sense to favor the lower ranks in situations where those teams have a real chance to grind out a win but just make sure you aren’t taking the Philadelphia 76ers when they are matched up with a powerhouse team like Golden State.