NBA Betting & Teaser Strategy



While the majority of moderators like to write off NBA teaser bets as sucker bets the reality is that those that know what they are doing understand how to maximize the potential of this type of bet and take full advantage. The key is to understand when the value is there and which situations to apply the teaser bets with the NBA. Here is a look at what you need to know about NBA teaser bets.

Basketball Teaser Odds

To win NBA teasers you need to bet with the best odds available. These numbers can change from time to time but the majority of sites have a standard number for their teasers so it makes sense to consider these ahead of time.

TheGreek: 2-team 5-points (-130)

While some sites offer -130 odds on 2-team, 5-point teasers there are others that offer -150 odds in the same situation, so it’s pretty obvious where the better value is. These numbers can change over time so make sure you check them out and find the best value with your wagers.

Understanding The Odds

The required win rate to break even on +101 bets is 49.75%. The formula used to calculate this is “risk divided by return”. At +101 we risk $100 to win $101 so our return is $201. To win betting 2-team NBA teasers at +101 we need to make selections that when teased 4.5 points “ties win” have greater than a 70.5% chance of covering.

Which Teams To Tease

All spreads teased at 4.5 points “ties win” combined for a record of 8313-4127 (66.8%). The subsets are broken down below:

Home Favorites: 2878-1523 (65.4%)
Home Underdogs: 1231-588 (67.7%)
Road Favorites: 1183-636 (65.0%)
Road Underdogs: 3021-1380 (68.6%)

As you can see, the win rates in each subset are more than high enough to consider betting the NBA teasers as much more than just sucker bets. The smart NBA bettor can bet on these sports with confidence and understand that they are in a favorable position to win.

Margins of Victory

The margins of victory are fairly spread out in the NBA. Here is a look at a sample of 6,220 NBA games that were used to establish different margins of victory.

1 Point: 251
2 Point: 347
3 Points: 333
4 Points: 370
5 Points: 413
6 Points: 375
7 Points: 410
8 Points: 388

The numbers are all over the place in terms of outcomes but while they don’t represent anything specific in terms of common outcomes we do understand the values of knocking down favorite lines. For example, if one team is listed at -4 and they can move to +1, that represents a significant jump since they can now technically lose by one and still cover. The margins of victory don’t provide the same common threads that we see in the NFL but we do have a basic understanding of the value of moving the lines.

Outlook

While the margins of victory don’t provide the same insight in the NBA as they do in the NFL, the key rule to remember is that if we can string together selections that when teased 4.5 points “ties win” have greater than a 70.5% chance of covering then we have an excellent chance to make significant profits. The NBA teaser isn’t as popular as it probably should be among casual bettors but the smart basketball fans have figured out how to use this tool to make a profit and take advantage with.