The 2016-17 NBA regular season is right around the corner and that means there are plenty of opportunities to jump on futures bets for regular season wins totals. There is some debate about the value of betting on wins totals across the board but when it comes to finding the best options available there is definitely some opportunity there. Here is a look at some potential value plays when betting on NBA wins totals for this season.
Golden State Warriors – Over 66.5
The Warriors set an NBA record last season with 73 wins and yet even after adding Kevin Durant in the offseason their wins total line has been set at 66.5. While some will still bet the under expecting further regression from last year’s outstanding season, we will argue that this line accounts for potential regression and take the over. Durant and company will have something to prove this season, especially considering so many people want to see them fail. Golden State might not win 73 games for the second year in a row, but it isn’t unreasonable to expect them to challenge for the 70-win mark and go over the 66.5.
Miami Heat –Under 35.5
Miami’s total was set at 36.5 before it was announced that Chris Bosh would not return for this season so it doesn’t seem reasonable that it has only dropped by one more win since the announcement. The Heat have lost Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng from a team that had 48 wins a year ago so a substantial drop off should be expected. Miami will be relying on an inexperienced young core in an improved Eastern Conference so we expect there to be a substantial drop off.
New York Knicks – Over 40.5
The Knicks have received a ton of flack after adding Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Brandon Jennings this offseason but we actually like those moves relative to their season wins total. New York won 32 games last season and while the additions they made might not help them win a championship it should help them win at least nine more games this season. Factor in a healthy and motivated Carmelo Anthony along with the development of Kristaps Porzingis and it’s clear the Knicks should top 40 wins in 2016-17.
Los Angeles Clippers – Under 53.5
The Clippers failed to live up to expectations again last season when they posted 53 wins in the regular season and then were booted from the playoffs in the opening round. Now they return with essentially the same team from a year ago minus some depth and their line for wins this season has been set at 53.5. It will certainly be tough for LA to improve on what they did during last year’s regular season and it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were some slight regression. They might come close to 50 wins, but 54 is a little too much to ask of this team and it makes a lot more sense to take the under.