Why It Makes Sense To Fade NBA Playoff Teams During The Preseason



Anybody that has risked serious money betting on sports has probably considered looking to online sportsbook sites or sports handicapping experts in hope of finding a legitimate betting system that works. While there is no such thing as a system that produces guaranteed winners, but there are sports betting systems that have produced strong enough results to incorporate their theories and strategies in to our approach when betting on sports. The strategy of fading NBA playoff teams during the following preseason is an interesting approach that has gained some traction over the years because of the results it has produced. Here is a look at why it makes sense to fade NBA playoff teams during the preseason.

The Breakdown

Based on the numbers recorded since 2014, the NBA teams that failed to make the playoffs the previous year posted a 392-388 record against teams that made the playoffs the previous year in preseason play. This is an interesting number since the majority of the teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous year would be considered underdogs in these scenarios, even if it is only preseason action. Typically, teams that don’t make the playoffs tend to have more young talent and higher draft picks that would need more exposure in the preseason while teams that made the playoffs tend to have more veterans that really don’t need to be involved in preseason basketball to the same extent. If the non-playoff teams are providing their starters with big minutes while the playoff teams are resting their starters and leaning on their bench then it makes sense that the non-playoff teams would have more success in the preseason. While the difference in win-loss record isn’t really big for non-playoff teams the following preseason those numbers can be adjusted based on betting against the spread and in terms of the moneyline value betting underdogs in comparison to betting favorites.

Building Off The Strategy

In order to gain an even bigger edge you can add the filter from “Spread Change Open to Close”, which will allow you to look at where the lines opened and where they closed. These numbers are important because they provide perspective in terms of what you would have bet when the line opened in comparison with how the public perception has altered the line. For example, if the Cleveland Cavaliers were playing the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland rested LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love while Detroit went with their full lineup then the Pistons would have a much better chance to win than they would have otherwise. However, if the public has bet blindly on the Cavaliers based on their name and the line moved from Detroit +2.5 to Detroit +5.5 then that is excellent value. This expansion on the basic strategy will help you get a greater edge when it comes to betting on preseason basketball.

Outlook

The preseason NBA betting system indicated how the underdogs can gain an edge depending on the scenario including specifically the matchups between non-playoff teams and playoff teams. Since 2005, the non-playoff underdogs of four-points or more against teams that made the playoffs the previous season have gone 135-88 against the spread, which represents a 60.5-percent success rate. The strategy of fading NBA playoff teams in the preseason can pay off big time so make sure you consider adopting that strategy ahead of next season.