Sports Betting: Standard Deviations Of ATS Margins By Totals



When a game has lower scoring, it makes logical sense that sportsbooks should be more accurate in their lines, and as a result, should be much easier to determine the final score of a game. If a sportsbook are more accurate when game totals are lower, bettors could conceive larger advantages when wagering on teasers. Standard deviation is defined as the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. A low standard deviation indicates that data points tend to be close to the average while a high standard deviation implies that data points are spread out over a wider range of values. Additionally, correlation is defined as the extent that two or more variables fluctuate together. A positive correlation suggests that these variables increase or decrease in parallel while a negative correlation shows the extent to which one variable increases as the other decreases. With the explanations, let’s take a look at how accurate sportsbooks are with ATS margins based on the sports betting game totals.

Standard Deviation In NBA

The correlation between ATS margins and game totals for the NBA is 0.17, indicating a very weak positive correlation. From the analysis, it appears that for NBA games with extremely low game totals (180 points or less), the ATS margin is much closer when compared to NBA game with totals set above 201.5 points. However, since a significant difference in the data set as a whole failed to materialize, no real conclusion can be drawn.

Standard Deviation In NCAAB

The correlation between ATS margins and game totals for the NCAAB is 0.46, indicating a decent positive correlation. While a gradual increase in ATS margins volatility is present as game totals increase, the rise is not extreme. However, this is still something to take note of.

Standard Deviation In NFL

The correlation between ATS margins and game totals for the NFL is 0.22. Similar to the NBA’s correlation, this indicates weak positive correlation while being statistically insignificant. What this correlation number tells us is that the accuracy in predicting the final ATS margins is, at best, random with regards to the game totals in the NFL.

Standard Deviation IN NCAAF

The correlation between ATS margins and game totals for the NCAAF is 0.35, which, again, indicates weak positive correlation while being statistically insignificant. However, when this information receives a more in-depth analysis, some trends being to reveal themselves. When game totals exceed 61 points, the average standard deviation of ATS margins is 15.61 points. On the other hand, when game totals are set between 40 to 50 points, the average standard deviation of ATS margins is 14.32 points. The standard deviation difference between these two figures is almost 1.5 points, which means that sportsbooks become slightly less accurate when predicting the final ATS margins as the game totals increase.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, the correlation between ATS margins and game totals failed to indicate anything of statistical significance for all four sports leagues, with the NBA having the lowest correlation, followed by the NFL, NCAAF, and NCAAB. However, what can be gleamed from the analysis is that lower game totals do indeed have lower variances as well. Well it may appear that nothing much came to light from the statistical analysis, one observation is true – sportsbooks are just as good, or bad, depending on how you look at it, in predicting the outcome of higher scoring games as they are in lower scoring games.