Sports Betting Strategy: The Best Way To Find Value In Champions League Betting



Millions of soccer fans tune in to the Champions League on an annual basis with a good portion of them wagering money on the games. It isn’t easy to make a substantial profit betting on those soccer games but there is a system out there that can improve your overall chances if you apply it to Champions League betting. The Elo rating is a chess rating system that was invented by a Hungarian-born American master level chess player and physics professor named Arpad Elo. The point of the system is to compare the skill level of players in competitor-versus-competitor games. However, the method developed by Elo has been adapted for several sports and is now widely used to assess the performance of soccer teams. Here is a look at how the Elo ratings can help you find the best value and gain an edge when betting on Champions League soccer.

When applying the Elo system to soccer, every team has a rating for each point in time and the higher the rating the stronger the team The ratings are constantly re-calculated in order to include the outcome of matches between rated teams. The key essence of the system is that the winning team takes points from the losing team. The number of points in the total pool for each match depends on the difference between the ratings of the teams. When a high-rated team wins against a low-rated team, only a few rating points will be deducted from the losing team. On the other hand, if the lower-rated team wins, then a proportionally larger amount of rating points is rewarded to them based on the upset. The general rule for the amount of rating points risked is that five-percent should be on the line, so naturally the bigger the disparity between the teams the bigger the numbers shift in the event of an upset. The rating points are shared equally in the event of a draw.

An example is the best way to understand the basic match behind the system. Lets pretend that Barcelona is playing against Bayern Munich in the Champions League semi-final. Barcelona has 1991 points and Bayern Munich has 1923 points heading in to the matchup. Both teams are relatively equal as two of the top teams in the Champions League so they will each risk five-percent of their points. Barcelona will risk 100 points while Bayern Munich will risk 96. If Barcelona wins, then their rating increases by 96 from 1991 to 2087, while Bayern Munich’s rating decreases to 1827. If Bayern Munich wins, then their rating increases by 100 points from 1923 to 2023, while Barcelona’s rating decreases to 1891. These teams are relatively close in rating so there isn’t a dramatic difference between the two. However, if Barcelona had a 2000 rating and Bayern Munich had an 1800 rating, then the difference would be a lot more dramatic between the favorite winning and the underdog pulling off the upset in terms of the amount of rating points that is transferred.

The most important thing to remember when applying the Elo ratings systems to betting on Champions League is that there are other factors to consider as well. Home advantage is an obvious element while goal aggregate is another obvious factor to consider when weighing the Elo rating of two teams against one another in a matchup. It’s also worth keeping a close eye on injury news because the Elo ratings are based on past performance alone. So if a key players was unavailable for a team in a loss, then their Elo rating will be negatively affected without acknowledging that player did not participate in the game. The Elo ratings system is an incredible tool that can really help soccer fans gain an edge and finding value when it comes to betting on the Champions League. Just make sure that you establish appropriate ratings from the outset of the tournament and incorporate the additional factors that the system cannot account for by design.