UFC Betting: Handicapping The UFC on Fox: Dillashaw Versus Barao Main Card



The table is set for the rematch between TJ Dillashaw and Renan Barao with the stakes at their highest at the UFC on FOX 16 event this Saturday night. It was just over a year ago that Dillashaw earned a TKO win over Barao to take the UFC Bantamweight championship away from him and it will be the former champion’s shot at redemption as he looks to win the title back. Here is a breakdown of the main card for the UFC on FOX 16 card including the best bets for each fight.

Bantamweight Championship Bout
(11-2-0) TJ Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao (33-2-0)

Dillashaw earned Fight of the Night, Performance of the Night and most importantly Upset of the Year honors for his TKO win over Barao last May and he backed it up with another Performance of the Night recognition when he knocked out Joe Soto at UFC 177. Now comes his toughest test yet as Barao looks for redemption against only the second opponent to ever beat him in Dillashaw, with only one other professional loss on his career-record dating back to his MMA debut in 2005. Barao bounced back from the loss to Dillashaw with a submission win over Mitch Gagnon this past December and while Barao has proven he has the talent to beat him already the more likely scenario has Barao taking a more cautious approach and bouncing back with a victory to become UFC Bantamweight champion once again with much better value betting him as the underdog for this main event tilt.

Pick: Renan Barao +175

Women’s Bantamweight Bout
(16-5-0) Miesha Tate vs. Jessica Eye (11-2-0)

Tate’s UFC career got off to a rough start with consecutive losses to Cat Zingano and Ronda Rousey before she turned things around and won three straight bouts. Tate picked up victories over Liz Carmouche, Rin Nakai and Sara McMann and while she failed to win any one of those bouts via stoppage she will have the opportunity to do exactly that against Eye. The 28-year-old Eye is coming off an impressive TKO win over Leslie Smith but she isn’t nearly as experienced as Tate and she isn’t as fierce either so look for the veteran to find a way to earn her fourth straight victory.

Pick: Miesha Tate -200

Lightweight Bout
(15-3-0) Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder (10-0-0)

Felder has put together 10 straight wins to open his professional career including consecutive UFC victories over Jason Saggo and Danny Castillo but he will be the underdog against Barboza and for good reason. Felder has never fought an opponent as talented as Barboza, who despite losses to Donald Cerrone and Michael Johnson still deserves to be highly regarded for his elite power. Nine of Barboza’s 15-career wins have come via knockout so don’t be surprised if he introduces Felder to his first-career loss by knocking him out in this highly anticipated tilt.

Pick: Edson Barboza -140

Lightweight Bout
(24-10-0) Joe Lauzon vs. Takanori Gomi (35-10-0)

Lauzon is coming off a TKO loss to Al Iaquinta but he is still a substantial favorite to bounce back with a win over Gomi in his return to the Octagon. Losses to top competition have prevented Lauzon from getting a push to the top but the 36-year-old Gomi has lost four of his last seven fights including defeats at the hands of Diego Sanchez and Myles Jury so an upset is very unlikely in this spot.

MMA Betting Pick: Joe Lauzon -250