The Canadian Football League has gained a lot more traction in the sports betting community over the years with an emphasis on the early season action before the NFL and college football seasons kick off. This past season the CFL received even more exposure when the league’s games were featured in DraftKings contests and it seems the popularity of the sport is trending upwards. Here is a look at some tips to consider if you want to get in on the action and bet on the CFL.
Betting Against The Public
There is almost always some value to betting against the public when it comes to sports and the numbers show that there is a proven correlation between the number of bets placed on each game and the value of fading the public in the CFL. When it comes to CFL betting, there still isn’t enough “square” bettors to move markets which you might think would negatively impact the value of betting against the public. As it turns out, the contrarian betting continues to be a profitable strategy in the CFL. Since 2005, underdogs have gone 445-374 against the spread, which represents a 54.3-percent mark. With teams receiving less than 50-percent of the spread bets, the win rate improves from 54.3-percent to 55.4-percent. When you focus on teams getting no more than 40-percent of the spread bets then that number jumps to 56.9-percent. It’s interesting to note that while the contrarian underdogs have put up strong results, the favorites that the public has ignored have struggled. Over the past 10 seasons, favorites that received less than 50-percent of spread bets have posted a 127-125 mark against the spread, which translates to just 50.6-percent.
Betting Under High Totals
Another interesting aspect that has come up with CFL betting over the years is the trend towards the under hitting on high totals. The under in CFL games has hit at a 456-376 mark, which translates to around 54.8-percent overall. That means if you bet $100 on every single CFL game to stay under the mark since the 2005 season then you would have earned a profit of $6,093. The numbers also show that the under has done even better in games with higher totals. In games where the total was 48.5 or higher, the winning rate increased from 54.8-percent to 55.6-percent.
Fade The Elite Teams
Another interesting aspect of CFL betting is the results when you consider fading elite teams. The Calgary Stampeders are coming off one of the most dominant seasons in CFL history and yet they fall in this category as well after losing to the Ottawa Redblacks in this year’s Grey Cup. Looking at the numbers over the last 10 years, teams have posted a 191-159 record against the spread when their winning percentage is less than 60-percent and their opponents win percentage is 60% or better. That is a 54.6-percent win rate. Now if the inferior team is the underdog then the win rate increases to 57.1-percent. These percentages represent excellent value if you are going to follow the strategy of fading elite teams and like betting against the public and betting under high totals these CFL betting strategies have stood the test of time.