With the NFL season right around the corner in September, there are a number of sportsbooks that are offering player prop bets that are available to bet on right up until kickoff of the regular season. The sportsbooks do their best to rely on what they feel will be major talking points for this upcoming season when building their player prop lines. We took a look at the lines they have set ahead of the 2016 NFL season and came up with a list of where we feel the best value can be found. Here is a look at the NFL player prop bets you should be interested in heading in to this season.
Drew Brees MVP - +2500
Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton are all listed at +600 odds to be the NFL MVP this coming season but we are focused on finding the best value when it comes to Brees. The veteran quarterback has thrown for at least 4,870 yards and 32 touchdowns in each of the last five seasons and there is absolutely no reason to expect that trend to end in 2016. The Saints appear to have found an absolute gem in second round pick Michael Thomas and they invested some money in the tight end position with the addition of Coby Fleener. New Orleans has surrounded Brees with the weapons to thrive at the quarterback position and at +2500 odds it is worth putting some money on Brees to win it.
Tom Brady Passing Yards – Under 4,000
Brady has topped the 4,000-yard mark in five straight seasons but there are some obvious reasons why that trend could come to an end in 2016. The most important factor is that Brady will miss the first four games of the year due to suspension. That means he will miss 25% of the game action he played in last year when he threw for 4,770 yards. The fact that the Patriots play in the Northeast means that weather could impact Brady’s performances late in the season as well with the potential for snow and cold to lead to new Engladn running the football more often. Brady has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL over the years but this is clearly the year to expect his numbers to take a dip.
Rob Gronkowski Receiving Touchdowns – Under 8.5
It only makes sense that if Brady’s numbers dip, Gronkowki’s numbers will dip as well. The Pro Bowl tight end finished last season with 71 catches for 1,176 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago but he will have a much tougher time topping 8.5 touchdowns this season without Brady for a quarter of the year. Some will argue that his numbers won’t dip with Jimmy Garoppolo since the young quarterback is more likely to try to force him the football but that seems like something opposing defenses can key in on. Then there is the issue of Gronkowski staying healthy for a full 16-game season, which is that much more unlikely after he managed to stay healthy and play in all 16 games last season.
Von Miller Total Sacks – Under 14.5
Miller turned it up for the Broncos in the playoffs and the Super Bowl in particular but that doesn’t mean he is going to maintain that high level of play this season. Miler failed to top his player prop total for sacks a year ago when he finished with 11 when the total was set at 12, and he will have an even tougher time topping 14.5 this season. Miller had a career-high 18.5 sacks back in 2012 but he hasn’t finished with more than 14 sacks in any other of his five NFL seasons so we feel confident betting the under for his sacks total this season.