The Risks Of Betting NFL Futures



With futures betting, the potential payout for a correct pick will usually be worth many times the amount originally wagered. However, high rewards usually always come with high risks. Since the futures bet relies on the outcome of an event a long time from when the bet was placed, many factors may change or new scenarios may arise. These unexpected deviations will affect the outcome of the futures bet, with variations in their impact. Here are some of the risks affiliated with betting NFL futures.

Player Injuries

When placing a futures bet for a specific NFL team, player injuries over the course of the season may significantly affect the outcome of the bet. Although player injuries are very difficult to anticipate, they are inevitable. One must carefully scrutinize the player(s) likely to suffer some sort of injury over the course of the season. However, at times, a player with no history of injury may unexpectedly suffer one during the season. This is a risk of futures betting that one must be able to live with. If one or more star players happen to be sidelined for a significant time period, you can most likely kiss your futures bet goodbye.

Underperforming Teams

Many times throughout NFL history, teams have made one or more significant offseason transactions that, on paper, make them juggernauts. As a result, bettors may decide to flock to that team and place futures bets for the team. However, whether it’s the NFL or other professional sports leagues, a team’s strength on paper does not necessarily translate into the same level of success on the field. Many factors may affect how a team looks on paper and how the team actually plays together, with team chemistry being one of the primary causes. A team surrounded by lots of hype before the season may soon find itself unraveling throughout the course of the season.

Opportunity Cost

Since a futures bet depends on the outcome of an event a long time from the when the bet was originally placed, there is an associated opportunity cost of having one’s money locked in to the futures bet. Since money that is locked in to a bet is not available to be used elsewhere, there is a cost to money that is “unavailable” for use. If I place a $1,000 futures bet, this $100 represents money that is locked away. If I wanted to invest the $1,000 into a company’s stock or purchase something, I’m not able to. As a result, this represents the opportunity cost of betting on futures – a risk that a bettor must accept.

Coaching Changes

A team that starts the season with a coach will not necessarily finish the season with the same coach. When a midseason coaching change occurs, this may affect a team’s morale, game strategies, and push uncertainty into the minds of players. Most of the time when a coaching change occurs during the season, players must adjust to the new style of the coach or be reprimanded with a reduction in playing time. This period of uncertainty may affect a team’s overall performance, which adds another layer of risk to futures betting.

In-Season Moves By Other Teams

A team that begins the season as somewhat of a lower-level contender may soon find itself near the top of the ranks via one or more in-season acquisitions or trades. As a result, this may significantly affect one’s futures bet, especially if the wager was placed on a rival team or a team in the same division. This is due to the fact that at the time that the bet was first placed, the team was not viewed as a viable threat. However, with the unforeseen acquisitions and trades, the team’s strength after the moves is nowhere close to what it had been before it made the moves. As a result, in-season moves by other teams may affect the status of your futures bet, albeit indirectly.