NHL Betting: How To Predict Hockey Games Using A Mathematical Based System



The National Hockey League has a strong following of sports betting fans that put their money down wagering on the action every single night. Those fans have a pretty good understanding of the teams, prospective matchups and how the odds work. However, the potential is there for them to improve their bottom line by using a simple system that can help provide them with an edge. Here is a look at how to predict NHL games using a mathematical based system.

The key numbers that serve as the foundation of this system are the home and away median scores. You can also use average scores, but the medians tend to work better since they aren’t nearly as influenced by extremely high or low-scoring teams. Lets pretend the median score for home teams is 2.74 and the median goals allowed is 2.54 while the median score for road teams is 2.54 with 2.74 goals allowed. Now take the scoring averages for the teams involved in a particular matchup and divide each team’s scoring averages in to the league median. That will give you a percentage that tells you how each team performs in comparison with the average team.

Now we can apply the calculations to an actual matchup in which the Washington Capitals visit the New York Rangers. The Capitals’ 3.0 goals scored per game is divided by the 2.54 goals per game that represents the median goals scored by road teams to give us the number 1.181. Next, Washington’s 2.3 goals allowed per game is divided by the 2.75 median goals allowed by road teams to give us the number .836. When we apply the same numbers to New York with its goals per game and goals allowed per game compared to the median goals per game and goals allowed per game by home teams we get 1.164 for goals for and 1.181 for goals allowed. The next step is to multiply each team’s offensive percentage by the opposition’s defensive percentage and then multiple that by the median number of goals scored for teams on the road for the visiting team, or at home when you are calculating the predicted number of goals scored by the home team. According to the example we have used, Washington’s score will be 3.543 (1.181x1.181x2.54=3.543). Meanwhile, the Rangers’ projected score according to our example would be 2.676 (1.164x.836x2.75-2.676). Therefore, the projected score for your game between Washington and New York would be 3.543-2.676 in favor of the Capitals.

This mathematical system isn’t perfect but it does give us a strong foundation for which to gain an edge when it comes to betting on the NHL. The system can be applied to picking winners as well as picking the over/under for NHL totals. We can use the numbers we have calculated in order to better understand where the best value is on both the moneyline and the totals and that alone is enough to make the system worth it. There is no guaranteed way to pick winners in the NHL on a nightly basis but consider using this simple mathematical system in order to gain an edge.