NASCAR Betting: Handicapping The AAA 500 From Dover International Speedway

Matt Kenseth followed up a fifth-place finish in the opening week of the Chase for the Sprint Cup by earning his fifth win of the season when he took the checkered flag in the Sylvania 300 at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday and he now sits atop the point standings heading in to the final race before the list of contenders is narrowed down again and the points are reset for the next round. Kenseth and Denny Hamlin have already earned automatic berths in the next round following their Chase wins, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be listed among the favorites once again for this weekend’s race. Here is a look at the best bets on the board for Sunday’s AAA 400 at the Dover International Speedway.

The Favorites
Joey Logano +325

Logano has been the most consistent driver dating back to his win at Watkins Glen back in early August as he has managed to string together seven straight top-10 finishes including a pair of wins. Logano struggled earlier this season at Dover but a lot has changed since then and it wouldn’t surprise anybody if he ran well this weekend and extended his streak of top-10 finishes with a very real chance to win this race.

Matt Kenseth +325

The Joe Gibbs Racing team and Kenseth in particular has been on fire and they will be eager to put a disappointing finish at Dover earlier in the year behind them at this weekend’s race. Kenseth has placed in the top-10 in nine of his last 11 starts including four wins and no driver will be hotter heading in to Dover this weekend.

Next In Line
Jimmie Johnson +600

The fact that Johnson has only three top-10 finishes in his last seven starts makes it understandable that he is not listed as the outright favorite to win this race but that doesn’t mean that he shouldn’t be based on his career resume at this track. Johnson’s last win came at Dover back in late May and he owns a series-best driver rating at this track with 10 wins overall here. It has been a year marred by inconsistency for the driver of the No. 48 car but if there is one week where he should be expected to get back on track this would certainly be it.
Denny Hamlin +650

Kyle Busch +650

Busch has struggled early on in this year’s Chase including a 37th place finish in last week’s race at New Hampshire and he didn’t run well at this track earlier in the season either when he finished 36th at Dover. Busch certainly has the talent to win any given race and there will be a sense of urgency this Sunday following a slow start but there are definitely better bets on the board.

Carl Edwards +750

Edwards placed 19th at Dover earlier in the season but he has placed in the top-five in each of the first two Chase races and suddenly he can’t be overlooked on a week-to-week basis anymore. Edwards didn’t dominate this season the way some of the other drivers on this list did but he has definitely turned it up of late and could be worth taking a flier on if you think his hot streak continues this weekend.

Sleeper Pick
Brad Keselowski +900

He isn’t exactly a deep sleeper pick but at this point in the season it is an absolute steal to get Keselowski at +900 odds so it is certainly worth taking a shot with him if you want to risk a small amount to try to win big. Keselowski placed a disappointing 12th at Dover earlier this year but he ran well at Dover last June when he won the pole and ran in the top five the entire race. Keselowski should be in the mix again this weekend and if you are looking for a decent bet at long odds then he is the perfect choice.