Every sports betting enthusiast is looking for an edge when it comes making substantial profits wagering on their sport of choice. For soccer fans, even the best betting judgments can turn in to losing bets so it’s important to put in the necessary time and research in order to gain an edge. Here is a guide to help you beat the bookies when it comes to betting totals in soccer markets.
Find The Average Goals Per Game
The first step to gaining an edge when it comes to beating the books is to figure out the average number of goals per game both in terms of the two teams playing and the league in general. Some leagues are higher scoring than others and some teams are higher scoring than others so it’s important to get a good idea of what to expect in general ahead of time.
Calculate The Probabilities
It’s also important to remember how random goal distribution could be on a game-by-game basis. In his book titled “Taking Chances”, John Haigh created the following table to calculate the probabilities of a team scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 or more goals based on their average number of goals per game. The table looked like this:
Goals 0 1 2 3 4 or more
Average=0.8 45% 36% 14% 4% 1%
Average=1.2 30% 36% 22% 9% 3%
Average=1.6 20% 32% 26% 14% 8%
Average=2.0 14% 27% 27% 18% 14%
We can use this table in order to better predict the likelihood that a game will go over a total or stay under a total. If the home team averages 1.2 goals per game and the road team averages just 0.8 goals per game then we can use the table to predict there is a good chance the combined total between those teams will stay under the 2.5 total. However, if the two teams average around 1.6 goals per game then the likelihood is greater that they will combine for a higher scoring game and likely go over the 2.5 total.
Factoring In The Odds
The sportsbooks will consider the same odds that we are using when they create their lines and then determine whether or not they think it’s worth making the total 2.5, 3.0 or 3.5 as well as what the odds should be for whatever number they go with. Based on our probabilities, we can then calculate whether or not we think there is a very good chance that the game will go over the total they set or not. It’s important to understand the process of how they arrived at the number they decided to use and whether or not he odds make it worth it for us to bet the over or the under in those situations based on the probability of what will occur. Everybody is always looking for an edge when it comes to beating the sportsbooks so keep this strategy in mind when betting on soccer totals in order to gain that advantage.