One of the most important tools that the professional sports handicappers use to their advantage is the ability to calculate margins in order to figure out where the best value is. It’s safe to say that the casual sports bettors don’t take advantage of this tool nearly as often and that in the end they are doing a disservice to themselves by missing out. Calculating potential sports betting margins is an excellent way to gain an edge betting on soccer games and we have simplified the strategy for your use. Here is a look at the best way to calculate margins in soccer betting in order to beat the sportsbooks and consistently make substantial profits.
How To Calculate Soccer Betting Margins
The sportsbooks will do their best to make sure that they get as close to an even amount of wagers on both sides as possible. That means when they are setting the margins for their games they are taking in to consideration what the best possible number is in order to ensure an event amount of wagers on both sides. Consider a coin toss as an example. If you flip a coin, there is a 50-percent chance that it will land on heads and a 50-percent chance that it will land on tails. Now, let’s say that the perception is that heads is more likely to be the outcome than tails and that the people betting on the coin toss feel that way as well. The sportsbooks could then shade the margin in favor of heads in order to account for that perception. Therefore, the margins set for the coin toss might not be reflective of the actual outcome. The best way to calculate true soccer margins is to use the formula (1/Decimal Odds Option A)x100 + (1/Decimal Odds Option B)x100. Here is a look at what the margin should look like if you are betting on a game between Manchester City and Chelsea if Manchester City is listed at 1.926 odds and Chelsea is listed at 2.020 odds:
(1/1.926)x100 + (1/2.02)x100 = 51.92 + 49.51 = 101.43% of Market or a margin of 1.43%
You can then use this number to your advantage when trying to determine where the best value is in terms of betting on the actual games.
Incorporating Goal Margins
The next step is to calculate probable goal margins for both teams. We can do this by calculating the total number of goals scored by the number of games played along with the total number of goals allowed by the number of games played for both teams. Pretend that in the example above, Manchester City is averaging 1.8 goals per game and 0.8 goals allowed per game while Chelsea is averaging 1.4 goals per game and 1.2 goals allowed per game. Add City’s goals for and Chelsea’s goals allowed averages together and divide by two, then do the same for Chelsea’s goals for and City’s goals allowed. By averaging the numbers out, we can estimate that City will score 1.3 goals to Chelsea’s 1.2 goals. This number does not represent the exact score but it does measure their goal potential versus one another.
Now that we understand the soccer betting margin for the game and the average goal margins for the game we should have a good idea of how the game will play out. These are two evenly matched teams and the likelihood is that City will only have a slight edge when they play. Based on the odds, you can now make an informed decision for which side you want to bet on and how much money you are willing to wager. This is an excellent way to gain an edge when it comes to calculating soccer betting margins and improving your understanding of the markets in order to gain a betting edge.