The majority of soccer bettors aren’t afraid to back the big favorites since the reality is that they will usually produce some consistent winners. Like most betting strategies, betting on big favorites isn’t without its flaws and if you don’t pay close enough attention then it can be easy to make mistakes. Here is a look at the soccer betting strategy for betting on big favorites.
Understanding Win Rates
The best way to understand the success that the top teams have had over the years is to look at the win rates for one of the most popular domestic leagues in the world in the English Premier League. According to the results over three seasons from 2012 through 2014, the first place team won an average of 73% of their games, the second place teams won an average of 67% of their games and the third place team won an average of 59% of their games. Those are pretty strong win rates and while it’s easy to bet on those teams blindly the smart thing to do is to break those numbers down even further by picking the games they are most likely to win. For example, if the first place team is going to win an average of 73% of their games then you could probably pick about 5-10 games where their advantage is the most distinct and concentrate your money on those games. You might not get the best odds but the fact that you are so confident that they will win means that you can afford to risk a little more money in order to increase your potential payout.
Breaking Down The Odds
While the odds for every favorite will be different it’s important to understand where to find the best value and avoid the trap of betting based solely on the value of the odds. For example, if you consider Team A to be a lock to win their game versus Team B while you think Team C is more likely than not to beat Team D, you don’t want to make the mistake of betting on Team C and not Team A just because you like the odds you will get for Team C. The smart move is to stick with the best bets on the board and if the odds are in your favor then that definitely helps. If you were to blindly bet $100 on the top three teams in the Premier League to win all of their games from 2012 through 2014 then you would have won $952. Obviously there is a good chance you could improve your winnings by narrowing the criteria even further and figuring out where the best bets will be.
While the casual bettor might think that it isn’t worth it to bet favorites at low odds the reality is that if they are close to locks to win then it actually does make sense so you are building up your bottom line. The best soccer handicappers in the world – whether they’re sports betting in Canada or in the United States – understand this concept and they are able to consistently exploit the soccer betting favorites and build up their profit margins by betting substantial money on them.