Tennis Betting: How Wild Cards Perform In The ATP



One of the most controversial subjects among sports bettors that wager on tennis is the Wild Card player. Almost every tournament has a space for at least one Wild Card with some including as many as three. These Wild Cards are even included in the main draw for some tournaments even though they don’t really have a chance to win the event. Here is a look at how tennis wild cards perform in the ATP.

The Numbers

The majority of Wild Card players aren’t even ranked in the top-300 in the world when they are entered in to a tournament. In a one-year study conducted in 2014, Wild Card players did have some success in the early rounds but failed to go far in to tournaments. Also, the Wild Card players that were ranked in the top-100 in the world had a lot more success than those ranked outside the top-300. According to the study, Wild Card players ranked inside the top-100 won 35 of their 64 matches when more than a single set was completed. Meanwhile, Wild Card players ranked outside the top-300 produced just 10 total wins in 55 matches that lasted more than a single set. While these Wild Card players won’t go on to win a tournament outright, their wins in the early rounds could offer significant value if you are able to pinpoint where the best opportunities rest.

Wild Cards In Top 100

While it is extremely rare for a Wild Card player to run the table and win an ATP event, it isn’t impossible. David Goffin’s run to the title in Kitzbuhel is the perfect example of an unlikely hero going all the way. It wouldn’t be wise to bet on a Wild Card player to win a tournament title. However, the right situation could allow for you to exploit some favorable odds betting on a Wild Card to win some early round matches. According to the study done in 2014, Wild Cards that were ranked inside the top-100 actually produced a very strong 30.7% return on investment. It’s important to remember that number is the result of blindly betting on those players. Therefore, if you can do the necessary research and find the Wild Cards in the most favorable spots then the potential is there for you to produce an even better ROI betting on Wild Cards in tennis.

Outlook

While you want to find value betting on Wild Card players, you don’t want to get caught overrating them either. Players from bigger countries with more tournaments tend to benefit from a number of Wild Cards with a high proportion to home players. You definitely want to avoid situations like this. The best bets are the Wild Card players ranked in the top-100 that have a better opportunity to win a smaller tournament based on additional factors such as opponent fatigue, injury or a relatively favorable matchup. Put in the necessary time to identify the best instances of Wild Card players in favorable situations and you might just find yourself making some profitable tennis bets.