The Impact Of Court Speed On Tennis Betting



The casual fan will usually bet on a tennis match based solely on who they think the better player in a matchup is. However, that clearly isn’t the best approach since there are a number of other factors that should be taken in to account. One of those important factors is court speed, which should be used in every evaluation of a matchup. The sports bettor can improve their chances of winning by understanding the difference in court speed and contrasting them with player characteristics. Here is a look at the impact of court speed when it comes to tennis betting.

The Courts

The ATP and other websites do an excellent job of keeping important information including the splits recorded at specific courts. The faster courts include Munich, Atlanta, Shanghai, Madrid, Brisbane and Beijing. The slower courts include Monte Carlo, Miami, Nice, Moscow and Hamburg. The full lists of the different styles of courts are available online so it is easy to look them up.

Determining Big Servers

The top servers hold around 90% of the time on average. Player on faster surfaces should only further boost this percentage. The majority of casual bettors will perceive big servers on a subjective basis but the numbers show which players have the most success with their serves. There is a simple strategy to determine which servers should have the most success in a given matchup. Take a player’s service hold percentage and minus the break opponent percentage. The players with the biggest difference percentage are classed as big servers. The faster the court speed the more likely these players are to succeed.

Determining Top Returners

While the big servers will benefit from a fast court speed, the opposite is true for the top returners. The faster the speed of the court, the worse off these top returners will be since it is even harder to keep up with service speed. The ATP does an excellent job of producing statistics for hold percentage and break percentage in order to get a better understanding of who the top returners are. It’s important to understand the impact that the court speed has on these players since they will tend to struggle on faster courts and tend to succeed on slower courts.

The Numbers

A study conducted over a one-year period concluded very strong returns for blind bets on the top servers and top returners on the surfaces that favored their skill sets. The top servers produced an 8.3% blind return on investment on fast courts while the top returners produced a 10.8% return on investment on slower courts. While both types of situations proved to be favorable, those numbers could look even better if you take the time to factor in other key considerations in order to narrow the selections to only the best bets on the board. There are a number of important factors that should be taken in to account when betting on tennis. Make sure you include court speed as an important one.